Mon, Mar 6, 2017·Amalie Arena, Tampa
New York Rangers 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 0 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 012 | 012 | 08 | 12 | 134 |
| TBL | 09 | 016 | 012 | 01 | 038 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- OT 3:56NYRMika ZibanejadGWGAssists: Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
Penalties (14)
- P1 3:57TBLJason Garrison: Holding2 min
- P1 6:34TBLLuke Witkowski: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:34NYRTanner Glass: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:12NYRBrandon Pirri: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:53TBLBrayden Point: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:53NYRJimmy Vesey: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:12TBLGabriel Dumont: Boarding2 min
- P2 4:13NYRChris Kreider: Interference2 min
- P2 12:13NYRRick Nash: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 13:49TBLAdam Erne: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:01NYRRyan McDonagh: Kneeing2 min
- P2 16:50TBLAndrei Vasilevskiy: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 16:56NYRMats Zuccarello: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 2:52NYRBrandon Pirri: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnson won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Miller – Vesey8:13
xG 0.24–0.15 (62%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Glass – Pirri – Lindberg3:49
xG 0.06–0.30 (17%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Stepan – Kreider – Zuccarello12:13
xG 0.17–0.42 (29%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Nash – Zibanejad – Buchnevich8:51
xG 0.38–0.72 (35%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Kampfer – Skjei8:40
xG 0.19–0.20 (50%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Staal – McDonagh12:43
xG 0.36–0.50 (42%)attempts 7–20goals 0–0
- Smith – Holden15:38
xG 0.38–0.67 (36%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestNamestnikov – Gourde – Erne6:32
xG 0.34–0.12 (74%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Johnson – Palat – Kucherov11:39
xG 0.67–0.46 (59%)attempts 20–9goals 0–0
- Killorn – Drouin – Point10:23
xG 0.16–0.18 (47%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCoburn – Sustr7:03
xG 0.57–0.14 (80%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Stralman – Garrison11:55
xG 0.59–0.40 (59%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Hedman – Dotchin9:41
xG 0.15–0.26 (36%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).