Tue, Mar 7, 2017·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Philadelphia Flyers 6, Buffalo Sabres 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 116 | 39 | 25 | 630 |
| BUF | 110 | 18 | 116 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:34PHIMatt ReadAssists: Radko Gudas, Nick Cousins · Deflected, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 15:25BUFEvander KanePPAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 4:58PHIRadko GudasAssists: Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 7:14BUFJack EichelPPAssists: Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 13:48PHIJordan WealAssists: Jakub Voracek, Sean Couturier · Tip-in, 0.14 xG3–2
- P2 18:02PHIClaude GirouxGWGAssists: Michael Del Zotto, Jordan Weal · Wrist, 0.19 xG4–2
- P3 2:45PHIChris VandeVeldeAssists: Michael Del Zotto, Travis Konecny · Deflected, 0.12 xG5–2
- P3 5:21PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Radko Gudas · Wrist, 0.05 xG6–2
- P3 14:50BUFJack EichelAssists: Cody Franson, Evander Kane · Wrist, 0.02 xG6–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:41BUFNicolas Deslauriers: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:41PHIPierre-Edouard Bellemare: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:52BUFJosh Gorges: Interference2 min
- P1 15:10PHIBrayden Schenn: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:02BUFCody Franson: Interference2 min
- P1 18:33BUFJack Eichel: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:11PHIPierre-Edouard Bellemare: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 10:43PHINick Cousins: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 10:51PHITravis Konecny: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestRead – Cousins – Couturier9:42
xG 0.25–0.07 (79%)attempts 10–5goals 2–0
- Giroux – Simmonds – Weal7:23
xG 0.43–0.32 (57%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- VandeVelde – Bellemare – Konecny5:13
xG 0.17–0.11 (60%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Filppula – Voracek – Schenn11:57
xG 0.17–0.79 (18%)attempts 6–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDel Zotto – Gudas15:21
xG 0.76–0.45 (63%)attempts 18–13goals 5–0
- Manning – Gostisbehere11:09
xG 0.37–0.56 (40%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- MacDonald – Provorov16:39
xG 0.26–0.54 (33%)attempts 12–20goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestMoulson – Reinhart – Eichel7:30
xG 0.39–0.06 (86%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
- Ennis – Deslauriers – Girgensons2:06
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Moulson – Bailey – Rodrigues2:22
xG 0.09–0.12 (43%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Foligno – Reinhart – Eichel3:35
xG 0.09–0.15 (37%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFranson – Bogosian2:07
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Falk – Bogosian16:22
xG 0.34–0.27 (55%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Gorges – Franson9:07
xG 0.30–0.32 (49%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).