Tue, Mar 7, 2017·BB&T Center, Sunrise
New York Rangers 5, Florida Panthers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 211 | 29 | 18 | 528 |
| FLA | 07 | 116 | 122 | 245 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:25NYRChris KreiderAssists: Steven Kampfer, Mats Zuccarello · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 13:00NYRTanner GlassAssists: Oscar Lindberg, J.T. Miller · Slap, 0.36 xG2–0
- P2 4:06NYRKevin HayesGWGAssists: Brady Skjei · Backhand, 0.10 xG3–0
- P2 11:20FLAThomas VanekAssists: Reilly Smith, Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–1
- P2 13:14NYRNick HoldenAssists: Oscar Lindberg, Tanner Glass · Slap, 0.08 xG4–1
- P3 16:34FLAAaron EkbladPPAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Jussi Jokinen · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–2
- P3 18:15NYRPavel BuchnevichENAssists: Rick Nash · Wrist, 0.70 xG5–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:54FLAJussi Jokinen: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:32FLAJussi Jokinen: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:24NYRNick Holden: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:37FLAAlexander Petrovic: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:30NYRBrady Skjei: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:50NYRChris Kreider: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:01NYRMarc Staal: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 6:41FLAKeith Yandle: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:05NYRBrandon Pirri: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Kreider – Zuccarello8:30
xG 0.43–0.27 (61%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Glass – Pirri – Lindberg8:09
xG 0.29–0.17 (63%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Nash – Zibanejad – Buchnevich7:52
xG 0.23–0.14 (62%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Hayes – Miller – Vesey7:18
xG 0.20–0.20 (50%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – Holden13:26
xG 0.89–0.20 (82%)attempts 14–16goals 2–0
- Kampfer – Skjei11:33
xG 0.49–0.41 (54%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- Staal – McDonagh9:18
xG 0.15–0.25 (37%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Huberdeau – Barkov9:33
xG 0.39–0.20 (66%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Vanek – Smith – Trocheck3:44
xG 0.31–0.18 (64%)attempts 5–6goals 1–1
- Vanek – Trocheck – Marchessault4:44
xG 0.15–0.15 (50%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Jokinen – Smith – Bjugstad5:48
xG 0.02–0.32 (6%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Ekblad14:06
xG 0.51–0.23 (69%)attempts 18–11goals 1–0
- Petrovic – Pysyk11:13
xG 0.39–0.58 (40%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Demers – Matheson10:08
xG 0.26–0.82 (24%)attempts 10–10goals 0–3
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).