Tue, Mar 7, 2017·Pepsi Center, Denver
Carolina Hurricanes 1, Colorado Avalanche 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 18 | 011 | 07 | 126 |
| COL | 09 | 29 | 17 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:08CARJustin FaulkAssists: Jeff Skinner, Jaccob Slavin · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 18:18COLGabriel LandeskogPPAssists: Tyson Barrie, Mark Barberio · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 19:04COLTyson BarrieGWGAssists: Sven Andrighetto, Fedor Tyutin · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 19:10COLNathan MacKinnonENAssists: Blake Comeau, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.70 xG1–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 1:56COLBlake Comeau: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:47COLFrancois Beauchemin: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:20CARDerek Ryan: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestRask – Teravainen – Aho5:26
xG 0.36–0.05 (88%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Stempniak – Skinner – Ryan6:59
xG 0.25–0.06 (82%)attempts 9–3goals 1–1
- Skinner – Rask – Lindholm4:50
xG 0.19–0.02 (89%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Staal – Teravainen – Aho3:32
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Slavin15:53
xG 0.72–0.64 (53%)attempts 21–10goals 1–0
- Faulk – Hanifin2:23
xG 0.05–0.03 (63%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Dahlbeck – Tennyson2:07
xG 0.01–0.02 (32%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestBourque – Landeskog – MacKinnon13:10
xG 0.80–0.21 (79%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Nieto – Grigorenko9:58
xG 0.38–0.14 (74%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Duchene – Andrighetto – Rantanen13:17
xG 0.14–0.35 (29%)attempts 6–14goals 1–0
- Mitchell – Comeau – Compher9:38
xG 0.24–0.50 (32%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Barberio11:27
xG 0.73–0.49 (60%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Wiercioch11:01
xG 0.27–0.07 (79%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Johnson5:37
xG 0.02–0.03 (34%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).