Tue, Mar 7, 2017·Honda Center, Anaheim
Nashville Predators 3, Anaheim Ducks 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 212 | 15 | 06 | 04 | 0 | 327 |
| ANA | 110 | 216 | 015 | 01 | 1 | 442 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:26NSHColin WilsonAssists: James Neal, Calle Jarnkrok · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 6:23NSHRyan EllisPPAssists: P.K. Subban, Mike Fisher · Slap, 0.07 xG2–0
- P1 14:16ANARyan GetzlafPPAssists: Sami Vatanen, Cam Fowler · Slap, 0.51 xG2–1
- P2 11:29NSHFilip ForsbergSHAssists: Calle Jarnkrok · Snap, 0.07 xG3–1
- P2 13:19ANANick RitchieAssists: Patrick Eaves, Ryan Getzlaf · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–2
- P2 19:02ANARickard RakellAssists: Patrick Eaves, Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. ANA Jakob Silfverberg stopped
- 2. NSH Ryan Ellis stopped
- 3. ANA Ryan Getzlaf stopped
- 4. NSH James Neal stopped
- 5. ANA Rickard Rakell stopped
- 6. NSH Filip Forsberg stopped
- 7. ANA Corey Perry stopped
- 8. NSH Viktor Arvidsson stopped
- 9. ANA Patrick Eaves scored
- 10. NSH Ryan Johansen stopped
Penalties (12)
- P1 3:08NSHCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:08ANAJared Boll: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 5:12ANABrandon Montour: Slashing2 min
- P1 7:49ANAAndrew Cogliano: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:45ANARyan Kesler: Cross checking2 min
- P1 12:32NSHJames Neal: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P1 17:09NSHAustin Watson: Fighting5 min
- P1 17:09ANAKevin Bieksa: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:00ANACorey Perry: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:30NSHYannick Weber: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:18ANANick Ritchie: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:27NSHRoman Josi: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Jarnkrok
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestFisher – Neal – Smith5:06
xG 0.88–0.06 (93%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Fisher – Smith – Watson5:00
xG 0.32–0.02 (95%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Neal – Wilson – Jarnkrok6:05
xG 0.26–0.08 (76%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
- Wilson – Watson – Johansen2:11
xG 0.01–0.05 (23%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSubban – Ekholm18:07
xG 1.01–0.65 (61%)attempts 10–27goals 1–0
- Josi – Ekholm2:56
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Weber – Irwin7:23
xG 0.32–0.57 (36%)attempts 5–14goals 0–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Eaves – Rakell13:47
xG 1.02–0.06 (94%)attempts 27–4goals 1–0
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg9:36
xG 0.69–0.20 (77%)attempts 16–6goals 0–1
- Perry – Thompson – Wagner3:40
xG 0.04–0.05 (43%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Boll – Wagner – Shaw3:39
xG 0.06–0.16 (26%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Lindholm10:45
xG 0.70–0.28 (72%)attempts 21–6goals 0–1
- Vatanen – Manson2:04
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Vatanen – Montour9:13
xG 0.44–0.32 (58%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).