Wed, Mar 8, 2017·TD Garden, Boston
Detroit Red Wings 1, Boston Bruins 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 07 | 18 | 012 | 127 |
| BOS | 415 | 110 | 14 | 629 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:07BOSDavid KrejciAssists: Drew Stafford, Zdeno Chara · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 12:08BOSBrad MarchandGWGAssists: David Pastrnak, Zdeno Chara · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P1 13:32BOSDrew StaffordUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–3
- P1 19:45BOSDavid KrejciUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–4
- P2 16:55BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Colin Miller · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–5
- P2 17:35DETNiklas KronwallAssists: Mike Green, Dylan Larkin · Slap, 0.03 xG1–5
- P3 0:34BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: David Krejci · Snap, 0.09 xG1–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 7:59DETDylan Larkin: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:10BOSDominic Moore: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:10DETXavier Ouellet: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:03DETDarren Helm: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:28DETNick Jensen: Interference2 min
- P2 15:28BOSFrank Vatrano: Embellishment2 min
- P3 9:48BOSBrandon Carlo: Interference2 min
- P3 15:43BOSDominic Moore: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:55BOSFrank Vatrano: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Moore won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Sheahan – Glendening7:48
xG 0.22–0.05 (82%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Nyquist – Tatar9:41
xG 0.44–0.30 (59%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Athanasiou – Mantha – Larkin8:03
xG 0.11–0.21 (35%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Abdelkader – Helm8:16
xG 0.25–0.51 (33%)attempts 9–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – DeKeyser2:06
xG 0.12–0.06 (65%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Green2:35
xG 0.03–0.01 (67%)attempts 1–1goals 1–0
- Kronwall – Jensen11:38
xG 0.46–0.49 (48%)attempts 12–11goals 0–2
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestStafford – Krejci – Pastrnak10:46
xG 0.83–0.24 (78%)attempts 12–10goals 3–0
- Bergeron – Backes – Marchand10:41
xG 0.37–0.31 (55%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Hayes – Vatrano – Czarnik8:25
xG 0.10–0.13 (44%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Moore – Nash – Schaller3:04
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Carlo14:16
xG 0.75–0.55 (58%)attempts 18–13goals 2–1
- McQuaid – Krug11:21
xG 0.35–0.20 (64%)attempts 8–13goals 2–0
- Miller – Miller9:21
xG 0.23–0.14 (63%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).