Wed, Mar 8, 2017·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Pittsburgh Penguins 7, Winnipeg Jets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 210 | 412 | 110 | 732 |
| WPG | 314 | 011 | 110 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:18WPGShawn MatthiasAssists: Adam Lowry, Ben Chiarot · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–1
- P1 4:43PITNick BoninoAssists: Scott Wilson · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 9:00WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Jacob Trouba · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P1 11:57PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Phil Kessel, Brian Dumoulin · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- P1 16:10WPGDustin ByfuglienAssists: Mark Scheifele, Ben Chiarot · Backhand, 0.28 xG2–3
- P2 9:09PITJustin SchultzPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin · Slap, 0.14 xG3–3
- P2 9:29PITNick BoninoPPAssists: Conor Sheary, Mark Streit · Wrist, 0.17 xG4–3
- P2 10:06PITEvgeni MalkinGWGAssists: Carl Hagelin, Chad Ruhwedel · Wrist, 0.19 xG5–3
- P2 18:21PITNick BoninoPPAssists: Chad Ruhwedel, Mark Streit · Wrist, 0.06 xG6–3
- P3 16:02PITJake GuentzelAssists: Chad Ruhwedel, Conor Sheary · Deflected, 0.12 xG7–3
- P3 18:45WPGMarko DanoAssists: Andrew Copp, Paul Postma · Wrist, 0.05 xG7–4
Penalties (21)
- P1 0:14WPGNikolaj Ehlers: Slashing2 min
- P1 3:33WPGBlake Wheeler: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:33PITEvgeni Malkin: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:35WPGChris Thorburn: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:35PITTom Sestito: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:10PITTom Sestito: Checking from behind5 min
- P1 13:10PITTom Sestito: Game misconduct10 min
- P1 13:10WPGAndrew Copp: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:14WPGBlake Wheeler: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:44PITChris Kunitz: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 5:04PITMark Streit: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:51WPGBen Chiarot: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 8:38WPGBryan Little: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:55WPGMathieu Perreault: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 19:00PITConor Sheary: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:53PITMatt Cullen: Holding2 min
- P3 14:16WPGAdam Lowry: Misconduct10 min
- P3 16:02PITConor Sheary: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:02WPGJosh Morrissey: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:02WPGJosh Morrissey: Cross checking2 min
- P3 16:02PITConor Sheary: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Guentzel – Sheary6:53
xG 0.57–0.08 (88%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Kunitz – Crosby – Sheary3:11
xG 0.42–0.03 (94%)attempts 4–1goals 0–1
- Bonino – Wilson – Guentzel2:43
xG 0.21–0.11 (67%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Malkin – Kessel – Hagelin5:48
xG 0.37–0.30 (55%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Dumoulin13:10
xG 1.00–0.36 (73%)attempts 12–9goals 1–1
- Cole – Ruhwedel10:38
xG 0.64–0.17 (79%)attempts 12–7goals 3–1
- Streit – Hainsey11:07
xG 0.55–0.33 (63%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestThorburn – Copp – Dano3:12
xG 0.15–0.08 (66%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Matthias – Lowry – Armia8:24
xG 0.59–0.65 (48%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Matthias – Scheifele – Armia2:24
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Little – Ehlers5:41
xG 0.20–0.32 (38%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPostma – Trouba2:48
xG 0.44–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Byfuglien – Trouba2:20
xG 0.20–0.02 (93%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Byfuglien – Chiarot8:21
xG 0.55–0.45 (55%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).