Thu, Mar 9, 2017·PNC Arena, Raleigh
New York Rangers 3, Carolina Hurricanes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 115 | 214 | 014 | 343 |
| CAR | 28 | 04 | 218 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:24NYRChris KreiderPPAssists: Derek Stepan, Ryan McDonagh · Snap, 0.35 xG1–0
- P1 13:15CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Victor Rask · Backhand, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 13:44CARValentin ZykovAssists: Sebastian Aho, Jordan Staal · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 7:16NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Chris Kreider, Derek Stepan · Backhand, 0.18 xG2–2
- P2 16:42NYRMika ZibanejadPPUnassisted · Snap, 0.13 xG3–2
- P3 9:04CARSebastian AhoPPAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Justin Faulk · Slap, 0.04 xG3–3
- P3 12:28CARSebastian AhoPPGWGAssists: Jordan Staal, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.30 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:04CARDerek Ryan: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P1 5:49CARElias Lindholm: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:41NYRBrady Skjei: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:57CARVictor Rask: Closing hand on puck2 min · PPG
- P2 11:51CARLee Stempniak: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 15:20CARRyan Murphy: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 17:48NYROscar Lindberg: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:30NYRNick Holden: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 11:32NYRMika Zibanejad: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rask won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Glass – Pirri – Lindberg7:29
xG 0.20–0.39 (34%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Hayes – Puempel – Vesey9:22
xG 0.26–0.47 (36%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Stepan – Kreider – Zuccarello11:17
xG 0.69–1.08 (39%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- Zibanejad – Miller – Buchnevich8:33
xG 0.18–0.93 (16%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – McDonagh2:47
xG 0.59–0.27 (69%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Skjei2:35
xG 0.13–0.01 (93%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Smith – Holden15:03
xG 0.64–0.67 (49%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Zykov – Aho6:14
xG 0.96–0.34 (74%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Stempniak – Zykov – Ryan2:34
xG 0.44–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Skinner – Rask – Lindholm12:39
xG 0.90–0.63 (59%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Staal – Teravainen – Aho3:59
xG 0.14–0.16 (45%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Hanifin6:21
xG 0.78–0.43 (64%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Slavin – Pesce3:52
xG 0.44–0.10 (82%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Faulk – Slavin9:00
xG 0.85–0.59 (59%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).