Thu, Mar 9, 2017·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 17 | 011 | 120 | 238 |
| TOR | 18 | 114 | 211 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:09PHIWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Claude Giroux · Slap, 0.55 xG1–0
- P1 13:57TORWilliam NylanderPPAssists: Jake Gardiner, Connor Brown · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 9:28TORTyler BozakUnassisted · Snap, 0.17 xG1–2
- P3 13:44TORMitch MarnerPPGWGAssists: Morgan Rielly, Tyler Bozak · Snap, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 17:32PHIShayne GostisbehereAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Jakub Voracek · Slap, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 19:00TORNazem KadriENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.60 xG2–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:30TORMitch Marner: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 12:31PHIRadko Gudas: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 9:53TORNikita Zaitsev: Interference2 min
- P3 13:35PHIBrayden Schenn: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 14:20TORConnor Brown: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestRead – Cousins – Couturier7:41
xG 0.11–0.04 (74%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Read – Couturier – Konecny3:12
xG 0.08–0.06 (56%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Filppula – Voracek – Schenn13:35
xG 0.56–0.57 (49%)attempts 17–16goals 0–0
- VandeVelde – Bellemare – Konecny5:50
xG 0.13–0.29 (31%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestManning – Gudas2:23
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Del Zotto – Gudas13:51
xG 0.52–0.52 (50%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
- Manning – Gostisbehere11:58
xG 0.14–0.31 (31%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKomarov – Kadri – Brown10:29
xG 0.77–0.39 (66%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner10:55
xG 0.43–0.29 (60%)attempts 7–14goals 1–0
- Boyle – Martin – Soshnikov7:30
xG 0.33–0.20 (62%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Hyman – Nylander – Matthews10:17
xG 0.42–0.32 (57%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Zaitsev16:57
xG 0.92–0.73 (56%)attempts 19–15goals 0–0
- Gardiner – Marchenko11:06
xG 0.36–0.21 (63%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Polak – Hunwick13:39
xG 0.23–0.15 (60%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).