Thu, Mar 9, 2017·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Montréal Canadiens 0, Calgary Flames 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 05 | 011 | 08 | 024 |
| CGY | 116 | 311 | 111 | 538 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:38CGYMark GiordanoGWGAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Michael Frolik · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 8:36CGYMichael StoneAssists: TJ Brodie, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 15:28CGYSean MonahanAssists: Michael Stone, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–3
- P2 15:54CGYMicheal FerlandAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–4
- P3 16:12CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Deryk Engelland, Michael Frolik · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 14:19MTLShea Weber: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:34CGYDougie Hamilton: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:40MTLPaul Byron: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:40CGYKris Versteeg: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:09CGYMatt Bartkowski: Fighting5 min
- P2 11:09MTLSteve Ott: Fighting5 min
- P3 13:09CGYLance Bouma: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Gallagher – Danault14:10
xG 0.63–0.36 (64%)attempts 12–15goals 0–1
- Ott – McCarron – Martinsen9:20
xG 0.33–0.22 (60%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
- Mitchell – Byron – Shaw10:21
xG 0.12–0.28 (31%)attempts 7–10goals 0–1
- King – Galchenyuk – Lehkonen9:36
xG 0.22–0.60 (27%)attempts 7–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBenn – Beaulieu13:24
xG 0.44–0.23 (66%)attempts 10–13goals 0–1
- Markov – Weber17:58
xG 0.40–0.44 (47%)attempts 11–16goals 0–1
- Emelin – Petry17:37
xG 0.45–0.82 (35%)attempts 12–25goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Backlund – Tkachuk13:19
xG 0.50–0.19 (72%)attempts 21–8goals 1–0
- Ferland – Gaudreau – Monahan13:22
xG 0.64–0.36 (64%)attempts 17–8goals 2–0
- Stajan – Bouma – Chiasson10:14
xG 0.28–0.30 (48%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Versteeg – Brouwer – Bennett11:01
xG 0.26–0.38 (40%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStone – Brodie12:26
xG 0.86–0.37 (70%)attempts 22–9goals 3–0
- Giordano – Brodie6:08
xG 0.27–0.05 (84%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Giordano – Hamilton10:23
xG 0.32–0.14 (69%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).