Thu, Mar 9, 2017·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
New York Islanders 4, Vancouver Canucks 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 14 | 210 | 013 | 11 | 428 |
| VAN | 014 | 216 | 17 | 02 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:01NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Josh Bailey, Anders Lee · Slap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 1:35VANReid BoucherAssists: Bo Horvat, Troy Stecher · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–1
- P2 3:31VANSven BaertschiUnassisted · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 9:44NYIAnthony BeauvillierAssists: Josh Bailey · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–2
- P2 19:36NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Nick Leddy, Josh Bailey · Deflected, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 19:40VANTroy StecherAssists: Henrik Sedin, Markus Granlund · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–3
- OT 1:33NYIAndrew LaddGWGAssists: Calvin de Haan, Ryan Strome · Deflected, 0.15 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 11:49VANBrandon Sutter: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 15:36NYINikolay Kulemin: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:27NYIAnders Lee: Interference2 min
- P2 10:32VANDaniel Sedin: Interference2 min
- P2 12:53NYICalvin de Haan: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 10:53VANBrendan Gaunce: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Tavares – Lee10:31
xG 0.90–0.24 (79%)attempts 12–10goals 1–1
- Chimera – Ladd – Beauvillier2:04
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Chimera – Ladd – Strome5:40
xG 0.09–0.25 (26%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Gionta – Clutterbuck – Beauvillier5:15
xG 0.09–0.28 (24%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – de Haan16:39
xG 0.58–0.46 (56%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
- Seidenberg – Hickey12:09
xG 0.45–0.61 (42%)attempts 10–13goals 1–0
- Leddy – Pelech13:55
xG 0.31–0.82 (28%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBoucher – Baertschi – Horvat9:49
xG 0.70–0.15 (82%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
- Sutter – Gaunce – Megna8:16
xG 0.46–0.07 (87%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Granlund13:07
xG 0.31–0.43 (42%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Stecher10:38
xG 0.77–0.20 (80%)attempts 8–8goals 2–1
- Sbisa – Tanev12:53
xG 0.26–0.44 (37%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Hutton – Tryamkin9:39
xG 0.23–0.59 (28%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).