Thu, Mar 9, 2017·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Nashville Predators 2, Los Angeles Kings 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 14 | 011 | 18 | 00 | 223 |
| LAK | 010 | 111 | 19 | 14 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:39NSHCalle JarnkrokAssists: James Neal, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P2 5:04LAKJarome IginlaPPAssists: Marian Gaborik, Paul LaDue · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–1
- P3 1:31NSHKevin FialaAssists: Mike Fisher · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–1
- P3 10:55LAKMarian GaborikPPAssists: Alec Martinez, Nic Dowd · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–2
- OT 3:34LAKJarome IginlaPPGWGAssists: Drew Doughty, Jeff Carter · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:02NSHCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:02LAKKyle Clifford: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:11LAKMarian Gaborik: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:05NSHMike Fisher: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 19:06NSHCraig Smith: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:06LAKJake Muzzin: Holding2 min
- P3 9:01NSHCalle Jarnkrok: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 12:25LAKJake Muzzin: Holding2 min
- OT 2:36NSHRyan Johansen: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Carter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestFisher – Smith – Fiala10:59
xG 1.06–0.21 (84%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson14:00
xG 0.57–0.25 (69%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- McLeod – Watson – Sissons5:01
xG 0.22–0.14 (60%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Neal – Wilson – Jarnkrok13:02
xG 0.23–0.37 (38%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Irwin19:53
xG 1.63–0.49 (77%)attempts 24–19goals 2–0
- Weber – Bitetto7:27
xG 0.40–0.18 (69%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Subban – Ekholm18:51
xG 0.45–0.39 (54%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Toffoli – Pearson12:31
xG 0.55–0.44 (56%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Brown – Lewis – Kempe9:52
xG 0.04–0.24 (16%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Clifford – Dowd – Andreoff5:44
xG 0.08–0.49 (13%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Iginla – Gaborik – Kopitar15:35
xG 0.44–1.11 (28%)attempts 11–17goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – LaDue14:40
xG 0.49–0.21 (70%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Martinez – McNabb13:51
xG 0.33–0.67 (33%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Doughty – Forbort19:11
xG 0.33–1.45 (19%)attempts 14–22goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).