Fri, Mar 10, 2017·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Chicago Blackhawks 2, Detroit Red Wings 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 16 | 111 | 09 | 226 |
| DET | 210 | 110 | 19 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:23CHIArtemi PanarinAssists: Patrick Kane, Artem Anisimov · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 16:25DETXavier OuelletAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Dylan Larkin · Slap, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 19:52DETAndreas AthanasiouAssists: Nick Jensen, Tomas Tatar · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 15:17DETTomas TatarGWGAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Gustav Nyquist · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–3
- P2 19:15CHITrevor van RiemsdykAssists: Marian Hossa · Slap, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 15:31DETTomas TatarAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Gustav Nyquist · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 9:09CHIMichal Rozsival: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:14CHITrevor van Riemsdyk: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:14DETJustin Abdelkader: Charging2 min
- P1 15:14DETJustin Abdelkader: Fighting5 min
- P1 15:14CHITrevor van Riemsdyk: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P1 15:14CHITrevor van Riemsdyk: Instigator2 min
- P2 3:17DETLuke Glendening: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:45DETAndreas Athanasiou: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:19CHIBrent Seabrook: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:34CHIJonathan Toews: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- Hossa – Kruger – Jurco4:15
xG 0.03–0.01 (73%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Desjardins – Hartman – Kero3:34
xG 0.05–0.03 (61%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Hossa – Kruger – Hartman2:54
xG 0.08–0.07 (53%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Toews – Panik – Schmaltz12:18
xG 0.23–0.34 (41%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRozsival – Kempny10:58
xG 0.31–0.23 (58%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Campbell – Seabrook4:29
xG 0.20–0.14 (59%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Seabrook – Kempny2:11
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Nyquist – Tatar12:26
xG 0.70–0.06 (92%)attempts 16–4goals 2–0
- Sheahan – Athanasiou – Larkin9:27
xG 0.20–0.17 (53%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Miller – Callahan – Glendening5:05
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Abdelkader – Helm8:49
xG 0.22–0.28 (45%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreen – DeKeyser15:06
xG 0.67–0.15 (81%)attempts 13–7goals 2–1
- Russo – Ouellet12:59
xG 0.59–0.09 (86%)attempts 11–5goals 1–1
- Kronwall – Jensen14:41
xG 0.31–0.27 (53%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).