Fri, Mar 10, 2017·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Minnesota Wild 7, Florida Panthers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 114 | 213 | 419 | 746 |
| FLA | 215 | 113 | 112 | 440 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:50MINJason ZuckerAssists: Jonas Brodin, Mikael Granlund · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 14:22FLAJonathan MarchessaultPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Aleksander Barkov · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 18:11FLAMark PysykAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Colton Sceviour · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 8:07MINEric StaalAssists: Nino Niederreiter · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 10:08MINJason PominvilleAssists: Martin Hanzal, Zach Parise · Tip-in, 0.21 xG3–2
- P2 11:09FLAJaromir JagrAssists: Vincent Trocheck, Jonathan Huberdeau · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3
- P3 2:57FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Mark Pysyk · Snap, 0.09 xG3–4
- P3 5:24MINEric StaalAssists: Marco Scandella, Charlie Coyle · Slap, 0.28 xG4–4
- P3 14:53MINZach PariseGWGAssists: Jason Pominville, Jonas Brodin · Slap, 0.17 xG5–4
- P3 18:50MINMikael GranlundENAssists: Jason Zucker, Mathew Dumba · Slap, 0.68 xG6–4
- P3 19:57MINCharlie CoyleENAssists: Eric Staal · Snap, 0.62 xG7–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 14:15MINMartin Hanzal: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 13:16FLAAleksander Barkov: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:07FLADerek MacKenzie: Cross checking2 min
- P2 16:48MINNino Niederreiter: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:48MINNino Niederreiter: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:48FLAMike Matheson: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:15FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hanzal won the faceoff against Bjugstad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Parise – Hanzal14:23
xG 1.51–0.34 (82%)attempts 17–15goals 2–1
- Staal – Coyle – Niederreiter11:34
xG 0.72–0.37 (66%)attempts 17–9goals 1–1
- Koivu – Zucker – Granlund11:48
xG 0.30–0.39 (43%)attempts 10–13goals 1–1
- White – Stewart – Haula8:01
xG 0.07–0.51 (13%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon19:10
xG 1.47–0.47 (76%)attempts 24–16goals 1–1
- Suter – Brodin2:01
xG 0.26–0.03 (91%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Scandella – Dumba12:51
xG 0.51–0.37 (58%)attempts 13–13goals 1–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestMacKenzie – Jokinen – Malgin10:51
xG 0.38–0.08 (83%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Sceviour – Trocheck – Huberdeau14:29
xG 0.61–0.36 (63%)attempts 20–8goals 1–0
- Jagr – Smith – Barkov11:22
xG 0.30–0.55 (35%)attempts 7–20goals 1–0
- Vanek – Bjugstad – Marchessault8:50
xG 0.35–1.53 (19%)attempts 9–17goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Ekblad10:14
xG 0.63–0.23 (73%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Demers – Pysyk10:37
xG 0.12–0.07 (64%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Petrovic – Matheson13:19
xG 0.61–0.59 (51%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).