Fri, Mar 10, 2017·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Anaheim Ducks 3, St. Louis Blues 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 26 | 06 | 114 | 326 |
| STL | 113 | 113 | 29 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:12STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Jay Bouwmeester · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 11:59ANARickard RakellAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Sami Vatanen · Slap, 0.00 xG1–1
- P1 18:12ANAChris WagnerAssists: Jared Boll, Cam Fowler · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 4:17STLRyan ReavesAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 0:25STLPaul StastnyAssists: Vladimir Tarasenko, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 9:24ANAJakob SilfverbergPPAssists: Rickard Rakell, Kevin Bieksa · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–3
- P3 19:40STLJoel EdmundsonGWGAssists: Robert Bortuzzo, Jake Allen · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
- P1 13:30ANAHampus Lindholm: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:04STLScottie Upshall: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 13:16ANAKevin Bieksa: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:36ANAPatrick Eaves: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
- P3 7:38STLDmitrij Jaskin: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Thompson – Kase10:37
xG 0.24–0.17 (59%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Boll – Wagner – Shaw5:30
xG 0.13–0.28 (32%)attempts 2–9goals 1–0
- Getzlaf – Eaves – Rakell13:38
xG 0.46–0.71 (39%)attempts 16–13goals 0–2
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg12:03
xG 0.07–0.77 (9%)attempts 8–14goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Bieksa – Holzer13:15
xG 0.64–0.67 (49%)attempts 15–12goals 1–1
- Vatanen – Fowler16:16
xG 0.40–0.59 (40%)attempts 15–14goals 1–1
- Manson – Lindholm17:34
xG 0.28–0.67 (29%)attempts 11–17goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Berglund – Perron13:05
xG 0.67–0.17 (80%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Lehtera – Paajarvi – Jaskin8:50
xG 0.36–0.17 (67%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Stastny – Tarasenko – Schwartz12:32
xG 0.55–0.41 (57%)attempts 15–10goals 3–0
- Upshall – Brodziak – Reaves10:14
xG 0.12–0.32 (28%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdmundson – Parayko8:23
xG 0.66–0.25 (73%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo18:12
xG 0.80–0.63 (56%)attempts 16–22goals 2–1
- Pietrangelo – Edmundson3:40
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).