Fri, Mar 10, 2017·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Edmonton Oilers 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 214 | 06 | 08 | 03 | 2 | 331 |
| EDM | 08 | 115 | 117 | 02 | 1 | 242 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:42PITNick BoninoAssists: Scott Wilson, Justin Schultz · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–0
- P1 17:25PITEvgeni MalkinUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 4:55EDMDavid DesharnaisAssists: Zack Kassian, Kris Russell · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–1
- P3 12:45EDMConnor McDavidPPAssists: Milan Lucic, Leon Draisaitl · Snap, 0.08 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. EDM Leon Draisaitl stopped
- 2. PIT Evgeni Malkin stopped
- 3. EDM Mark Letestu stopped
- 4. PIT Sidney Crosby scored
- 5. EDM Connor McDavid scored
- 6. PIT Phil Kessel scored
Penalties (4)
- P1 19:55EDMAdam Larsson: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:42PITJustin Schultz: Cross checking2 min
- P3 10:56PITChad Ruhwedel: Hooking2 min · PPG
- OT 2:31EDMJordan Eberle: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Kessel – Hagelin14:05
xG 0.96–0.68 (58%)attempts 14–18goals 1–0
- Kuhnhackl – Sundqvist – Rowney6:28
xG 0.02–0.26 (8%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Bonino – Wilson9:37
xG 0.34–0.86 (29%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
- Crosby – Guentzel – Sheary14:22
xG 0.59–1.76 (25%)attempts 15–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Hainsey13:18
xG 1.62–1.14 (59%)attempts 16–16goals 0–0
- Schultz – Dumoulin17:21
xG 0.96–1.27 (43%)attempts 18–19goals 1–0
- Cole – Ruhwedel10:50
xG 0.11–0.91 (11%)attempts 5–16goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPouliot – Desharnais – Kassian9:25
xG 1.27–0.30 (81%)attempts 12–4goals 1–1
- Lucic – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins11:10
xG 0.85–0.35 (71%)attempts 18–7goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Letestu – Pakarinen6:49
xG 0.48–0.03 (94%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Maroon – Draisaitl – McDavid15:24
xG 1.49–1.83 (45%)attempts 17–21goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Russell15:49
xG 1.54–0.43 (78%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
- Benning – Nurse13:26
xG 0.81–0.35 (70%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Larsson – Klefbom17:01
xG 1.60–2.08 (43%)attempts 28–23goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).