Sat, Mar 11, 2017·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Calgary Flames 3, Winnipeg Jets 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 110 | 112 | 17 | 329 |
| WPG | 07 | 015 | 09 | 031 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:06CGYMikael BacklundPPGWGAssists: Michael Frolik, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–0
- P2 12:09CGYMichael FrolikPPAssists: Matthew Tkachuk, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.44 xG2–0
- P3 3:24CGYAlex ChiassonAssists: Sean Monahan, Dougie Hamilton · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–0
Penalties (11)
- P1 13:08WPGBen Chiarot: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 7:22CGYMatt Stajan: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:50WPGBen Chiarot: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 13:35WPGNikolaj Ehlers: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:55WPGDustin Byfuglien: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:38CGYSam Bennett: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:38CGYSam Bennett: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:38WPGJacob Trouba: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:42CGYBrian Elliott: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:42WPGJosh Morrissey: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 12:42CGYMatt Stajan: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Bennett
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Backlund – Tkachuk8:42
xG 0.45–0.28 (61%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Ferland – Gaudreau – Monahan9:54
xG 0.23–0.07 (76%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Stajan – Bouma – Chiasson6:18
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Versteeg – Brouwer – Bennett8:13
xG 0.03–0.51 (6%)attempts 1–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Giordano – Hamilton12:25
xG 0.40–0.47 (46%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Engelland – Brodie15:12
xG 0.56–0.72 (44%)attempts 12–18goals 1–0
- Wideman – Bartkowski9:50
xG 0.03–0.67 (4%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLowry – Armia – Copp8:36
xG 0.75–0.13 (85%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Little – Perreault – Laine12:58
xG 0.71–0.13 (84%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Matthias – Dano – Petan5:22
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Ehlers11:56
xG 0.28–0.51 (35%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTrouba – Morrissey13:01
xG 0.64–0.23 (73%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Byfuglien – Trouba2:21
xG 0.43–0.12 (78%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Stuart – Postma8:28
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).