Sat, Mar 11, 2017·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
New York Islanders 3, St. Louis Blues 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 010 | 18 | 26 | 324 |
| STL | 18 | 310 | 06 | 424 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:23STLVladimir TarasenkoPPAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Alexander Steen · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 4:58STLAlexander SteenUnassisted · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 11:37NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Joshua Ho-Sang, Scott Mayfield · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 15:28STLVladimir TarasenkoAssists: Carl Gunnarsson · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
- P2 18:06STLPatrik BerglundGWGAssists: David Perron, Magnus Paajarvi · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–4
- P3 2:11NYIAnthony BeauvillierAssists: Thomas Hickey, Cal Clutterbuck · Slap, 0.05 xG2–4
- P3 18:31NYINick LeddyPPAssists: Andrew Ladd, John Tavares · Slap, 0.03 xG3–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 6:17NYIThomas Hickey: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 10:14STLDmitrij Jaskin: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 7:47STLDavid Perron: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:21STLJay Bouwmeester: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Berglund won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Clutterbuck – Beauvillier6:51
xG 0.26–0.11 (71%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Bailey – Tavares – Lee12:05
xG 0.47–0.44 (52%)attempts 13–5goals 0–2
- Chimera – Ladd – Strome7:44
xG 0.11–0.22 (34%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Kulemin – Nelson – Ho-Sang9:18
xG 0.25–0.36 (41%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – Hickey14:17
xG 0.73–0.38 (66%)attempts 19–11goals 1–1
- Hamonic – de Haan16:12
xG 0.31–0.48 (39%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Leddy – Mayfield16:45
xG 0.27–0.50 (35%)attempts 10–11goals 1–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBerglund – Perron – Paajarvi10:26
xG 0.46–0.24 (66%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Steen – Tarasenko – Schwartz10:44
xG 0.40–0.27 (60%)attempts 7–7goals 2–1
- Jaskin – Yakupov – Barbashev10:00
xG 0.26–0.35 (43%)attempts 6–16goals 0–0
- Upshall – Brodziak – Reaves10:53
xG 0.19–0.33 (36%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Bortuzzo14:57
xG 0.60–0.47 (56%)attempts 7–15goals 1–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo2:49
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Edmundson – Schmaltz11:52
xG 0.41–0.43 (49%)attempts 9–10goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).