Sun, Mar 12, 2017·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
New York Rangers 4, Detroit Red Wings 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 19 | 213 | 19 | 431 |
| DET | 08 | 19 | 07 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:33NYRRyan McDonaghSHAssists: Kevin Hayes, Michael Grabner · Tip-in, 0.20 xG1–0
- P2 5:35DETFrans NielsenPPAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Justin Abdelkader · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 16:50NYRRyan McDonaghGWGAssists: Marc Staal, Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 17:27NYRKevin HayesAssists: J.T. Miller, Michael Grabner · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–1
- P3 16:01NYRDerek StepanPPAssists: Chris Kreider, Mats Zuccarello · Slap, 0.10 xG4–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 18:17NYRSteven Kampfer: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:52NYRMarc Staal: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P2 12:13DETDylan Larkin: High sticking2 min
- P3 0:24NYRBrendan Smith: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 2:34NYRDerek Stepan: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:11DETDylan Larkin: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zetterberg won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestNash – Zibanejad – Buchnevich10:32
xG 0.48–0.04 (92%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Stepan – Kreider – Zuccarello10:32
xG 0.32–0.21 (60%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Grabner – Hayes – Miller11:45
xG 0.26–0.37 (42%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
- Glass – Lindberg – Vesey9:07
xG 0.25–0.46 (35%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKampfer – Skjei13:39
xG 0.44–0.16 (74%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Staal – McDonagh16:04
xG 0.56–0.45 (55%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
- Smith – Holden15:45
xG 0.22–0.45 (33%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Callahan – Glendening5:11
xG 0.17–0.02 (89%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Sheahan – Athanasiou – Larkin9:03
xG 0.25–0.14 (64%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Nyquist – Tatar14:55
xG 0.43–0.54 (44%)attempts 17–12goals 0–1
- Nielsen – Abdelkader – Helm9:33
xG 0.08–0.31 (20%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRusso – Ouellet15:17
xG 0.52–0.28 (65%)attempts 16–10goals 0–1
- Kronwall – Jensen14:52
xG 0.36–0.38 (49%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- Green – DeKeyser14:55
xG 0.25–0.60 (29%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).