Sun, Mar 12, 2017·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Montréal Canadiens 4, Edmonton Oilers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 97% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 015 | 011 | 415 | 441 |
| EDM | 06 | 110 | 09 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:17EDMMilan LucicUnassisted · Snap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P3 13:33MTLPaul ByronAssists: Phillip Danault, Brendan Gallagher · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P3 14:42MTLMax PaciorettyGWGAssists: Alex Galchenyuk, Andrei Markov · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 18:53MTLPaul ByronENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.63 xG3–1
- P3 19:33MTLMax PaciorettyENAssists: Paul Byron, Torrey Mitchell · Wrist, 0.68 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:15EDMDarnell Nurse: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:15MTLMichael McCarron: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:29EDMZack Kassian: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 7:16MTLAndrew Shaw: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:35EDMLeon Draisaitl: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:00MTLAlexei Emelin: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 16:26EDMBenoit Pouliot: Slashing2 min
- P3 16:26MTLAlexander Radulov: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Desharnais won the faceoff against Mitchell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestMitchell – Byron – Gallagher3:43
xG 1.45–0.06 (96%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Shaw – Lehkonen4:13
xG 0.98–0.28 (78%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Radulov – Pacioretty – Galchenyuk8:01
xG 0.75–0.17 (81%)attempts 11–7goals 1–1
- Byron – Gallagher – Danault4:25
xG 0.22–0.09 (71%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEmelin – Petry14:39
xG 2.50–0.64 (80%)attempts 27–15goals 0–1
- Markov – Weber16:44
xG 1.18–0.53 (69%)attempts 19–15goals 1–0
- Benn – Beaulieu10:40
xG 0.53–0.37 (59%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Hendricks – Letestu – Pakarinen4:41
xG 0.15–0.18 (45%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Lucic – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins12:02
xG 0.24–0.66 (26%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
- Maroon – Draisaitl – McDavid12:51
xG 0.68–1.77 (28%)attempts 13–23goals 0–1
- Pouliot – Desharnais – Kassian8:35
xG 0.14–1.62 (8%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Gryba – Nurse10:46
xG 0.62–1.01 (38%)attempts 13–17goals 0–0
- Larsson – Klefbom14:12
xG 0.43–0.82 (34%)attempts 12–16goals 1–1
- Sekera – Russell15:45
xG 0.40–2.31 (15%)attempts 10–21goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 97% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).