Sun, Mar 12, 2017·Honda Center, Anaheim
Washington Capitals 2, Anaheim Ducks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 07 | 113 | 17 | 227 |
| ANA | 010 | 312 | 210 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 4:52ANACorey PerryUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 9:21ANACorey PerryAssists: Ryan Kesler, Ryan Getzlaf · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 9:49ANARickard RakellGWGAssists: Ryan Getzlaf · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–3
- P2 12:10WSHJohn CarlsonPPAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Justin Williams · Slap, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 4:27ANARyan GetzlafPPAssists: Corey Perry, Ryan Kesler · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–4
- P3 4:57WSHMarcus JohanssonAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–4
- P3 12:42ANARyan KeslerAssists: Jakob Silfverberg, Andrew Cogliano · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 7:59WSHLars Eller: Interference2 min
- P1 9:05ANARyan Getzlaf: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:59ANARyan Kesler: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 19:32WSHTom Wilson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 6:35ANARyan Getzlaf: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:19WSHNicklas Backstrom: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:55ANANick Ritchie: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 13:14ANARyan Kesler: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:55WSHTom Wilson: Interference2 min
- P3 2:26WSHJay Beagle: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:45WSHT.J. Oshie: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 9:26WSHDaniel Winnik: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Eller – Connolly4:30
xG 0.23–0.06 (80%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Winnik – Beagle – Wilson3:09
xG 0.04–0.04 (52%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Oshie – Eller – Connolly2:55
xG 0.03–0.03 (49%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Oshie – Backstrom – Johansson4:46
xG 0.06–0.12 (32%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Schmidt14:02
xG 0.86–0.18 (83%)attempts 20–8goals 1–0
- Niskanen – Orlov14:48
xG 0.52–0.59 (47%)attempts 13–13goals 0–2
- Alzner – Carlson11:39
xG 0.18–0.82 (18%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Eaves – Rakell11:13
xG 0.57–0.30 (66%)attempts 11–14goals 1–0
- Thompson – Shaw – Kase7:04
xG 0.54–0.28 (66%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg9:19
xG 0.47–0.64 (42%)attempts 8–13goals 1–1
- Vermette – Perry – Ritchie9:14
xG 0.06–0.44 (12%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Lindholm13:12
xG 1.04–0.22 (82%)attempts 18–9goals 1–0
- Bieksa – Vatanen13:49
xG 0.53–0.71 (43%)attempts 8–16goals 1–1
- Fowler – Montour14:11
xG 0.40–0.76 (34%)attempts 13–19goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).