Mon, Mar 13, 2017·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Carolina Hurricanes 8, New York Islanders 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 29 | 413 | 211 | 833 |
| NYI | 215 | 26 | 06 | 427 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:11NYIRyan StromeAssists: Andrew Ladd, Thomas Hickey · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 14:14CARJaccob SlavinAssists: Victor Rask, Brett Pesce · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 14:40CARJoakim NordstromAssists: Lee Stempniak, Jaccob Slavin · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–1
- P1 17:32NYIStephen GiontaAssists: Cal Clutterbuck, Nikolay Kulemin · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–2
- P2 2:43NYICalvin de HaanAssists: Joshua Ho-Sang, Thomas Hickey · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
- P2 6:51CARJustin FaulkAssists: Jordan Staal, Noah Hanifin · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–3
- P2 8:02CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Elias Lindholm, Matt Tennyson · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–3
- P2 8:58CARJustin FaulkGWGAssists: Noah Hanifin, Derek Ryan · Wrist, 0.04 xG5–3
- P2 11:45CARJaccob SlavinSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.27 xG6–3
- P2 13:50NYIJoshua Ho-SangAssists: Anthony Beauvillier · Tip-in, 0.10 xG6–4
- P3 3:43CARJeff SkinnerUnassisted · Backhand, 0.31 xG7–4
- P3 10:57CARJaccob SlavinAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Jordan Staal · Slap, 0.03 xG8–4
Penalties (7)
- P2 0:30CARTeuvo Teravainen: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:25CARLee Stempniak: Interference2 min
- P2 17:18NYIThomas Hickey: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:43NYIDennis Seidenberg: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P3 7:44NYICal Clutterbuck: Delaying game smothering puck2 min
- P3 18:35CARElias Lindholm: Cross checking2 min
- P3 18:35NYICal Clutterbuck: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStempniak – Nordstrom – Wallmark7:38
xG 0.71–0.18 (79%)attempts 7–3goals 1–1
- Skinner – Rask – Lindholm11:31
xG 0.66–0.33 (67%)attempts 15–13goals 2–0
- Staal – Teravainen – Aho14:36
xG 0.45–0.38 (54%)attempts 14–13goals 2–0
- McClement – Brown – Ryan7:21
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Pesce14:26
xG 0.99–0.32 (76%)attempts 15–12goals 3–0
- Faulk – Hanifin14:35
xG 0.57–0.29 (66%)attempts 14–11goals 2–1
- Dahlbeck – Tennyson11:23
xG 0.42–0.52 (45%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Clutterbuck – Kulemin8:12
xG 0.58–0.27 (68%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Bailey – Tavares – Lee12:51
xG 0.31–0.25 (55%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
- Chimera – Ladd – Strome9:08
xG 0.34–0.30 (53%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
- Nelson – Ho-Sang – Beauvillier9:55
xG 0.24–0.92 (21%)attempts 8–13goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – Hickey11:14
xG 0.67–0.27 (71%)attempts 11–7goals 2–1
- Hamonic – de Haan15:43
xG 0.45–0.56 (44%)attempts 13–20goals 1–3
- Leddy – Pelech14:56
xG 0.34–1.05 (24%)attempts 13–14goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).