Mon, Mar 13, 2017·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Columbus Blue Jackets 5, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 211 | 110 | 28 | 529 |
| PHI | 110 | 29 | 07 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:42CBJSam GagnerAssists: Boone Jenner, Oliver Bjorkstrand · Slap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 8:42CBJCam AtkinsonAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Zach Werenski · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–0
- P1 14:10PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Sean Couturier · Snap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 4:23PHIBrayden SchennPPAssists: Claude Giroux · Snap, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 11:03PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Matt Read, Radko Gudas · Snap, 0.03 xG2–3
- P2 14:30CBJZach WerenskiAssists: Seth Jones, Matt Calvert · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–3
- P3 8:46CBJBrandon DubinskyPPGWGAssists: Brandon Saad, Seth Jones · Snap, 0.06 xG4–3
- P3 19:39CBJCam AtkinsonENAssists: Brandon Saad · Snap, 0.65 xG5–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 10:42PHIIvan Provorov: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:24CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:32CBJJosh Anderson: Roughing2 min
- P2 0:32PHIRadko Gudas: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:32CBJJack Johnson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 4:51CBJWilliam Karlsson: Interference2 min
- P2 6:30CBJSeth Jones: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 11:13CBJScott Hartnell: Interference2 min
- P2 18:54CBJJosh Anderson: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:54CBJJosh Anderson: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:54PHITravis Konecny: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:20PHITravis Konecny: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 15:59CBJBoone Jenner: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Filppula won the faceoff against Dubinsky
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestAtkinson – Saad – Wennberg8:20
xG 0.45–0.05 (91%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Dubinsky – Jenner – Anderson6:54
xG 0.33–0.17 (66%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Gagner – Bjorkstrand6:41
xG 0.23–0.11 (67%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Korpikoski – Calvert – Karlsson6:03
xG 0.05–0.06 (48%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Werenski9:19
xG 0.85–0.32 (72%)attempts 18–4goals 3–0
- Johnson – Savard12:53
xG 0.25–0.13 (66%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Quincey – Jones2:22
xG 0.01–0.03 (36%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Read – Couturier6:07
xG 0.34–0.17 (66%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- VandeVelde – Bellemare – Lyubimov4:07
xG 0.02–0.04 (30%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Giroux – Simmonds – Weal6:43
xG 0.31–0.38 (45%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Filppula – Voracek – Konecny9:38
xG 0.01–0.49 (3%)attempts 2–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Gostisbehere7:30
xG 0.23–0.14 (61%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Del Zotto – Gudas10:04
xG 0.39–0.47 (45%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- MacDonald – Provorov13:14
xG 0.13–0.64 (17%)attempts 8–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).