Mon, Mar 13, 2017·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Calgary Flames 4 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 212 | 012 | 15 | 06 | 0 | 335 |
| CGY | 110 | 17 | 111 | 02 | 1 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:54PITConor ShearyAssists: Jake Guentzel, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–0
- P1 13:48CGYDeryk EngellandAssists: Alex Chiasson, Matt Stajan · Tip-in, 0.01 xG1–1
- P1 15:51PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Chris Kunitz, Phil Kessel · Tip-in, 0.18 xG2–1
- P2 1:34CGYDennis WidemanAssists: Kris Versteeg, Sam Bennett · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P3 5:22CGYJohnny GaudreauPPAssists: Kris Versteeg · Wrap-around, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 16:29PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Conor Sheary, Jake Guentzel · Deflected, 0.12 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. PIT Evgeni Malkin stopped
- 2. CGY Kris Versteeg scored
- 3. PIT Sidney Crosby stopped
- 4. CGY Sean Monahan stopped
- 5. PIT Phil Kessel stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:02PITRon Hainsey: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:10CGYMichael Frolik: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 5:44CGYMark Giordano: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 10:08PITScott Wilson: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:43CGYBrian Elliott: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:50PITPhil Kessel: Slashing2 min · PPG
- OT 2:38CGYMark Giordano: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Guentzel – Sheary16:00
xG 1.36–0.18 (88%)attempts 24–6goals 2–0
- Bonino – Kuhnhackl – Wilson2:49
xG 0.03–0.02 (57%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Kuhnhackl – Sundqvist – Rowney3:16
xG 0.02–0.19 (11%)attempts 1–7goals 0–1
- Bonino – Wilson – Archibald7:36
xG 0.15–0.42 (26%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Hainsey4:30
xG 0.48–0.33 (59%)attempts 4–7goals 1–1
- Hainsey – Schultz4:27
xG 0.11–0.01 (91%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Dumoulin3:35
xG 0.17–0.15 (53%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFerland – Gaudreau – Monahan14:04
xG 0.96–0.30 (76%)attempts 17–12goals 0–0
- Stajan – Bouma – Chiasson6:39
xG 0.30–0.06 (84%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Versteeg – Brouwer – Bennett9:06
xG 0.14–0.20 (42%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk13:38
xG 0.32–1.09 (23%)attempts 11–20goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Bartkowski11:39
xG 0.47–0.17 (73%)attempts 11–4goals 1–0
- Engelland – Brodie17:43
xG 0.80–0.64 (56%)attempts 23–16goals 1–1
- Bartkowski – Hamilton2:15
xG 0.00–0.32 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).