Tue, Mar 14, 2017·Verizon Center, Washington
Minnesota Wild 2, Washington Capitals 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 014 | 011 | 27 | 232 |
| WSH | 115 | 214 | 111 | 440 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:48WSHNate SchmidtAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 14:52WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: John Carlson, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–2
- P2 17:08WSHEvgeny KuznetsovPPGWGAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–3
- P3 0:37MINMathew DumbaAssists: Mikael Granlund · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–3
- P3 4:37MINEric StaalPPAssists: Mikko Koivu, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–3
- P3 14:19WSHJay BeagleAssists: Dmitry Orlov · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–4
Penalties (15)
- P1 0:20MINMathew Dumba: Tripping2 min
- P1 5:48WSHNate Schmidt: Holding2 min
- P2 1:17MINMathew Dumba: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:31WSHBrooks Orpik: Holding2 min
- P2 8:45MINEric Staal: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:39WSHKarl Alzner: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:51MINMikael Granlund: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:46MINRyan Suter: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 17:37MINRyan White: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:37WSHTom Wilson: Instigator2 min
- P2 17:37WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:37WSHTom Wilson: Misconduct10 min
- P3 2:32WSHBrett Connolly: Interference2 min
- P3 3:43WSHNicklas Backstrom: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 4:51WSHJustin Williams: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Coyle – Niederreiter8:11
xG 0.68–0.25 (73%)attempts 9–8goals 0–2
- White – Stewart – Graovac6:26
xG 0.44–0.42 (51%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Pominville – Haula – Zucker2:04
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Koivu – Zucker – Granlund8:32
xG 0.27–0.57 (32%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Dumba12:03
xG 0.88–0.40 (69%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Prosser – Brodin7:41
xG 0.24–0.27 (47%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Suter – Spurgeon11:50
xG 0.51–0.64 (44%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Johansson – Kuznetsov9:04
xG 0.79–0.16 (83%)attempts 16–3goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom11:42
xG 0.78–0.45 (64%)attempts 14–14goals 1–1
- Winnik – Beagle – Wilson4:53
xG 0.08–0.06 (56%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Eller – Connolly – Vrana5:10
xG 0.05–0.66 (7%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAlzner – Carlson11:20
xG 0.71–0.45 (62%)attempts 15–15goals 0–1
- Orpik – Schmidt10:47
xG 0.61–0.78 (44%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Niskanen – Orlov11:13
xG 0.31–0.48 (39%)attempts 11–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).