Tue, Mar 14, 2017·PNC Arena, Raleigh
New York Islanders 3, Carolina Hurricanes 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 07 | 213 | 013 | 11 | 334 |
| CAR | 19 | 111 | 012 | 00 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:30CARJoakim NordstromAssists: Lee Stempniak, Lucas Wallmark · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 0:40CARElias LindholmUnassisted · Snap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 18:55NYIJoshua Ho-SangAssists: Nikolay Kulemin · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 19:20NYIJason ChimeraAssists: Cal Clutterbuck, Calvin de Haan · Snap, 0.07 xG2–2
- OT 0:34NYIJohn TavaresGWGAssists: Joshua Ho-Sang, Nick Leddy · Snap, 0.09 xG3–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 17:59NYITravis Hamonic: Interference2 min
- P2 8:26NYICal Clutterbuck: Cross checking2 min
- P2 11:34NYIJohn Tavares: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:42CARSebastian Aho: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Rask won the faceoff against Strome
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Tavares – Lee12:32
xG 0.58–0.28 (67%)attempts 17–13goals 0–0
- Ladd – Strome – Ho-Sang10:17
xG 0.27–0.30 (48%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- Chimera – Kulemin – Beauvillier7:56
xG 0.32–0.75 (30%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
- Gionta – Clutterbuck – Quine7:30
xG 0.19–0.88 (18%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeidenberg – de Haan17:57
xG 0.91–0.53 (63%)attempts 25–16goals 1–0
- Leddy – Pelech16:15
xG 0.52–0.87 (37%)attempts 14–18goals 0–1
- Hickey – Hamonic15:24
xG 0.50–1.24 (28%)attempts 13–21goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStempniak – Nordstrom – Wallmark8:35
xG 0.83–0.24 (77%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Skinner – Rask – Lindholm11:58
xG 0.72–0.52 (58%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
- McClement – Brown – Ryan4:10
xG 0.13–0.04 (76%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Staal – Teravainen – Aho11:53
xG 0.56–0.50 (53%)attempts 16–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Hanifin16:17
xG 1.16–0.70 (62%)attempts 21–19goals 2–0
- Dahlbeck – Tennyson12:34
xG 0.77–0.40 (66%)attempts 14–15goals 0–1
- Slavin – Pesce18:00
xG 0.77–0.90 (46%)attempts 18–21goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).