Tue, Mar 14, 2017·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Dallas Stars 1, Edmonton Oilers 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 05 | 112 | 06 | 123 |
| EDM | 213 | 310 | 26 | 729 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:12EDMBenoit PouliotAssists: Zack Kassian · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 18:01EDMOscar KlefbomPPGWGAssists: Milan Lucic, Leon Draisaitl · Slap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 2:06EDMDarnell NurseUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–3
- P2 5:42DALBrett RitchieAssists: Curtis McKenzie, Adam Cracknell · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–3
- P2 9:30EDMDavid DesharnaisAssists: Anton Slepyshev, Andrej Sekera · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–4
- P2 11:29EDMPatrick MaroonAssists: Leon Draisaitl · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–5
- P3 12:17EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Milan Lucic, Jordan Eberle · Tip-in, 0.36 xG1–6
- P3 14:00EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Patrick Maroon, Zack Kassian · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–7
Penalties (3)
- P1 6:15DALDan Hamhuis: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 17:03DALJohn Klingberg: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:45EDMLeon Draisaitl: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Eakin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestHemsky – Benn – Eakin4:29
xG 0.42–0.16 (72%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Spezza – Eakin – Elie2:06
xG 0.01–0.03 (26%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Cracknell – McKenzie – Ritchie10:08
xG 0.24–0.30 (45%)attempts 15–7goals 1–2
- Sharp – Benn – Eakin5:25
xG 0.05–0.11 (30%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohns – Nemeth10:17
xG 0.20–0.10 (67%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Johns7:26
xG 0.16–0.20 (44%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Oleksiak8:11
xG 0.30–0.35 (46%)attempts 7–10goals 1–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestPouliot – Desharnais – Kassian12:42
xG 0.52–0.03 (95%)attempts 9–11goals 2–0
- Lucic – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins14:34
xG 0.77–0.52 (60%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
- Maroon – Draisaitl – McDavid14:14
xG 0.53–0.49 (52%)attempts 13–19goals 1–0
- Hendricks – Letestu – Slepyshev8:51
xG 0.13–0.45 (22%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Nurse3:19
xG 0.71–0.07 (91%)attempts 7–4goals 2–1
- Benning – Nurse15:36
xG 0.81–0.39 (68%)attempts 16–10goals 3–0
- Sekera – Russell15:45
xG 0.42–0.53 (44%)attempts 10–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).