Wed, Mar 15, 2017·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Pittsburgh Penguins 0, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 08 | 09 | 06 | 023 |
| PHI | 07 | 213 | 28 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:00PHISean CouturierGWGAssists: Dale Weise, Brayden Schenn · Snap, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 6:20PHIWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, Ivan Provorov · Snap, 0.54 xG0–2
- P3 15:44PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Pierre-Edouard Bellemare · Snap, 0.09 xG0–3
- P3 19:12PHIDale WeiseAssists: Brayden Schenn, Sean Couturier · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:38PITSidney Crosby: Interference2 min
- P1 13:27PITJustin Schultz: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:48PHIBrayden Schenn: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:39PHIPierre-Edouard Bellemare: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:59PITIan Cole: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 8:47PITChris Kunitz: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Malkin – Kessel7:22
xG 0.66–0.38 (64%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Cullen – Kuhnhackl – Sundqvist5:03
xG 0.33–0.15 (69%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Crosby – Guentzel – Sheary15:36
xG 0.70–0.54 (56%)attempts 24–16goals 0–2
- Cullen – Malkin – Wilson4:45
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Dumoulin4:36
xG 0.94–0.15 (86%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Schultz – Dumoulin5:56
xG 0.31–0.09 (77%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Streit – Schultz5:28
xG 0.12–0.04 (76%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestWeise – Schenn – Couturier10:04
xG 0.88–0.12 (88%)attempts 9–7goals 2–0
- Giroux – Simmonds – Bellemare2:41
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- VandeVelde – Read – Bellemare5:07
xG 0.05–0.13 (26%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Giroux – Simmonds – Cousins7:58
xG 0.00–0.38 (0%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDel Zotto – Gudas14:52
xG 1.05–0.62 (63%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
- MacDonald – Provorov19:12
xG 0.52–0.33 (61%)attempts 16–19goals 1–0
- Schultz – Gostisbehere9:26
xG 0.24–0.86 (22%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).