Wed, Mar 15, 2017·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Boston Bruins 5, Calgary Flames 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 17 | 216 | 29 | 532 |
| CGY | 19 | 17 | 07 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:23CGYAlex ChiassonAssists: Lance Bouma, Matt Stajan · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 11:47BOSDavid PastrnakAssists: Zdeno Chara · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P2 6:04BOSBrad MarchandUnassisted · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 7:14CGYDougie HamiltonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG2–2
- P2 11:03BOSDavid BackesGWGAssists: David Krejci · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 3:36BOSMatt BeleskeyAssists: Ryan Spooner, Drew Stafford · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–2
- P3 19:57BOSDavid PastrnakENAssists: Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.53 xG5–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:14BOSRiley Nash: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:22BOSPatrice Bergeron: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:55CGYMichael Frolik: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:00CGYMikael Backlund: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:28BOSDavid Pastrnak: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak9:21
xG 0.69–0.12 (85%)attempts 16–5goals 0–1
- Stafford – Beleskey – Spooner6:24
xG 0.37–0.18 (68%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Moore – Nash – Hayes6:47
xG 0.25–0.21 (54%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Backes – Marchand2:41
xG 0.09–0.24 (28%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Miller10:25
xG 0.60–0.40 (60%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1
- McQuaid – Krug14:48
xG 0.65–0.73 (47%)attempts 19–12goals 0–1
- Chara – Carlo15:25
xG 0.21–0.62 (25%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFerland – Gaudreau – Monahan12:53
xG 0.75–0.18 (80%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Stajan – Bouma – Chiasson7:56
xG 0.30–0.24 (56%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk13:13
xG 0.32–0.78 (29%)attempts 7–18goals 1–1
- Versteeg – Brouwer – Bennett8:48
xG 0.01–0.65 (1%)attempts 1–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Bartkowski13:04
xG 0.62–0.49 (56%)attempts 15–15goals 0–3
- Engelland – Brodie17:48
xG 0.92–0.79 (54%)attempts 11–15goals 0–1
- Giordano – Hamilton12:32
xG 0.43–0.53 (44%)attempts 9–14goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).