Thu, Mar 16, 2017·Prudential Center, Newark
Philadelphia Flyers 2, New Jersey Devils 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 16 | 19 | 04 | 219 |
| NJD | 110 | 212 | 37 | 629 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:00PHIMichael Del ZottoAssists: Jakub Voracek, Claude Giroux · Slap, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 18:11NJDKyle PalmieriAssists: Travis Zajac · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 5:50NJDAdam HenriqueAssists: Beau Bennett, Dalton Prout · Snap, 0.12 xG1–2
- P2 9:40NJDJoseph BlandisiPPGWGAssists: Damon Severson, Pavel Zacha · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–3
- P2 11:13PHIBrayden SchennAssists: Radko Gudas, Michael Del Zotto · Snap, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 1:33NJDTaylor HallAssists: Travis Zajac · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–4
- P3 4:08NJDAdam HenriqueAssists: John Moore, Kyle Palmieri · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–5
- P3 15:21NJDTaylor HallENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.48 xG2–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:17NJDTaylor Hall: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:16PHIRadko Gudas: Cross checking2 min
- P2 1:10PHITravis Konecny: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:43PHIAndrew MacDonald: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:47NJDDalton Prout: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:18PHIJakub Voracek: Holding2 min
- P2 15:39NJDJon Merrill: Interference2 min
- P3 0:00NJDStefan Noesen: Misconduct10 min
- P3 0:00NJDStefan Noesen: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Blandisi won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestWeise – Schenn – Couturier11:57
xG 0.52–0.44 (54%)attempts 5–11goals 1–1
- Filppula – Read – Konecny2:18
xG 0.06–0.02 (72%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Simmonds2:55
xG 0.12–0.15 (43%)attempts 2–1goals 0–1
- Giroux – Simmonds – Weal7:45
xG 0.02–0.12 (14%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Gudas2:47
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Del Zotto – Gudas14:32
xG 0.58–0.62 (49%)attempts 8–15goals 2–1
- Gostisbehere – Provorov2:27
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestHenrique – Bennett – Blandisi9:01
xG 0.62–0.18 (78%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Zajac – Palmieri – Hall10:14
xG 0.55–0.28 (66%)attempts 9–5goals 2–0
- Pietila – Wood – Lappin8:21
xG 0.21–0.28 (43%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Noesen – Quenneville – Zacha10:28
xG 0.11–0.21 (34%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMoore – Severson13:39
xG 0.84–0.25 (77%)attempts 16–6goals 2–0
- Prout – Merrill13:46
xG 0.69–0.50 (58%)attempts 13–8goals 1–2
- Greene – Lovejoy15:56
xG 0.26–0.50 (34%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).