Thu, Mar 16, 2017·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Winnipeg Jets 4, New York Islanders 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 27 | 213 | 08 | 428 |
| NYI | 111 | 08 | 110 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:38NYIAdam PelechAssists: John Tavares, Nick Leddy · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 9:22WPGBryan LittleAssists: Nikolaj Ehlers, Ben Chiarot · Snap, 0.25 xG1–1
- P1 18:35WPGBryan LittlePPAssists: Nic Petan, Nikolaj Ehlers · Slap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 3:24WPGMathieu PerreaultGWGAssists: Blake Wheeler, Mark Scheifele · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–1
- P2 11:31WPGAdam LowryAssists: Joel Armia, Mark Stuart · Wrist, 0.19 xG4–1
- P3 1:02NYIAnders LeeUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:34WPGBen Chiarot: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:19WPGAdam Lowry: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:18NYIThomas Hickey: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:47NYIDennis Seidenberg: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 17:17WPGPatrik Laine: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:32NYIAnders Lee: Slashing2 min
- P3 6:41WPGChris Thorburn: Interference2 min
- P3 16:56NYIJoshua Ho-Sang: Interference2 min
- P3 19:45NYIAlan Quine: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Perreault – Scheifele9:34
xG 0.59–0.26 (70%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Lowry – Armia – Copp7:47
xG 0.53–0.32 (62%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
- Thorburn – Dano – Petan6:51
xG 0.14–0.22 (38%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Little – Ehlers – Laine10:30
xG 0.34–0.91 (27%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Chiarot9:43
xG 0.56–0.13 (81%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Byfuglien – Melchiori14:17
xG 0.59–0.58 (50%)attempts 9–15goals 0–1
- Postma – Morrissey16:42
xG 0.86–1.05 (45%)attempts 14–19goals 1–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNelson – Strome – Ho-Sang3:46
xG 0.43–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Chimera – Kulemin – Nelson3:30
xG 0.26–0.08 (77%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Bailey – Tavares – Lee8:28
xG 0.44–0.45 (50%)attempts 9–7goals 2–1
- Ladd – Strome – Ho-Sang4:53
xG 0.12–0.13 (48%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – de Haan4:50
xG 0.59–0.21 (74%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Leddy – Pelech16:03
xG 0.42–0.44 (49%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Seidenberg – de Haan7:28
xG 0.49–0.75 (40%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).