Thu, Mar 16, 2017·Verizon Center, Washington
Nashville Predators 2, Washington Capitals 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 04 | 113 | 05 | 12 | 224 |
| WSH | 19 | 05 | 09 | 00 | 123 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:41WSHBrett ConnollyAssists: Jakub Vrana · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 18:56NSHJames NealAssists: Kevin Fiala · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- OT 1:05NSHViktor ArvidssonGWGAssists: Ryan Johansen, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
Penalties (6)
- P2 11:26NSHCody McLeod: Interference2 min
- P2 14:16WSHTom Wilson: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:39NSHRyan Johansen: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 19:39WSHJohn Carlson: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:29WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:29NSHAustin Watson: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jarnkrok won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- Smith – Johansen – Forsberg5:40
xG 0.20–0.17 (54%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Fisher – Neal – Fiala3:49
xG 0.04–0.01 (79%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Parenteau – Neal – Jarnkrok6:47
xG 0.01–0.07 (17%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Johansen – Forsberg – Arvidsson8:54
xG 0.21–0.28 (43%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Irwin10:10
xG 0.23–0.17 (57%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Josi – Ellis17:38
xG 0.36–0.54 (40%)attempts 12–15goals 0–1
- Subban – Ekholm20:57
xG 0.28–0.56 (33%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestWinnik – Beagle – Wilson8:46
xG 0.44–0.17 (72%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom12:58
xG 0.58–0.35 (63%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Williams – Johansson – Kuznetsov14:04
xG 0.18–0.09 (66%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Eller – Connolly – Vrana7:38
xG 0.09–0.17 (36%)attempts 2–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Orlov15:32
xG 0.40–0.11 (79%)attempts 13–6goals 1–1
- Orpik – Shattenkirk14:12
xG 0.41–0.27 (61%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Alzner – Carlson16:42
xG 0.51–0.38 (57%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).