Thu, Mar 16, 2017·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Minnesota Wild 1, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 19 | 06 | 016 | 131 |
| CAR | 110 | 08 | 26 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:37CARDerek RyanPPAssists: Noah Hanifin, Lee Stempniak · Wrist, 0.35 xG0–1
- P1 12:35MINMikael GranlundSHAssists: Mikko Koivu · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–1
- P3 16:36CARVictor RaskGWGAssists: Elias Lindholm, Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–2
- P3 18:34CARTeuvo TeravainenENAssists: Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.62 xG1–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:04MINRyan White: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 12:02MINNate Prosser: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:45CARLucas Wallmark: Holding2 min
- P2 12:33MINMathew Dumba: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:57MINNate Prosser: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wallmark won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Coyle – Niederreiter12:21
xG 0.73–0.15 (83%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Koivu – Zucker – Granlund9:38
xG 0.48–0.27 (64%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- White – Stewart – Graovac6:09
xG 0.26–0.26 (50%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Pominville – Parise – Haula11:43
xG 0.32–0.45 (41%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon18:19
xG 1.18–0.51 (70%)attempts 19–21goals 0–0
- Scandella – Dumba15:21
xG 0.66–0.35 (65%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Prosser – Brodin10:45
xG 0.30–0.32 (49%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestMcGinn – Brown – Ryan2:49
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Rask – McGinn – Lindholm6:15
xG 0.44–0.40 (53%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Nordstrom – Brown – Ryan3:49
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Stempniak – Nordstrom – Wallmark2:38
xG 0.02–0.02 (47%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Faulk – Slavin16:17
xG 0.80–0.98 (45%)attempts 20–14goals 1–0
- Pesce – Hanifin15:18
xG 0.26–0.47 (36%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Dahlbeck – Murphy13:39
xG 0.32–0.67 (32%)attempts 9–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).