Thu, Mar 16, 2017·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Florida Panthers 1, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 110 | 012 | 012 | 134 |
| CBJ | 012 | 213 | 09 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:15FLAJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Thomas Vanek, Alexander Petrovic · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P2 15:51CBJZach WerenskiAssists: Josh Anderson, Matt Calvert · Snap, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 19:21CBJJosh AndersonGWGAssists: Jack Johnson, William Karlsson · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–2
Penalties (5)
- P2 2:04CBJJosh Anderson: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:32CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:39FLAJason Demers: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:49FLAMike Matheson: Holding2 min
- P3 4:41FLAJonathan Marchessault: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wennberg won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Huberdeau – Barkov12:55
xG 0.61–0.26 (70%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Smith – Trocheck13:00
xG 0.32–0.30 (52%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Sceviour6:18
xG 0.03–0.26 (10%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Vanek – Bjugstad – Marchessault9:06
xG 0.51–0.96 (35%)attempts 10–14goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestPetrovic – Matheson17:47
xG 1.02–0.56 (65%)attempts 22–9goals 1–0
- Yandle – Demers13:54
xG 0.48–0.44 (52%)attempts 13–11goals 0–2
- Kindl – Pysyk11:29
xG 0.45–0.48 (49%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestCalvert – Karlsson – Anderson6:37
xG 0.79–0.44 (64%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Hartnell – Gagner – Bjorkstrand7:51
xG 0.54–0.42 (56%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Dubinsky – Atkinson – Jenner12:57
xG 0.19–0.46 (29%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Foligno – Saad – Wennberg12:42
xG 0.26–0.54 (33%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – Nutivaara12:45
xG 0.69–0.51 (57%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Quincey – Jones2:41
xG 0.10–0.03 (78%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Johnson – Savard17:06
xG 0.50–0.47 (52%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).