Thu, Mar 16, 2017·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Chicago Blackhawks 2, Ottawa Senators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 013 | 09 | 26 | 228 |
| OTT | 013 | 08 | 113 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 8:04CHIDuncan KeithAssists: Artemi Panarin · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P3 11:23OTTKyle TurrisPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Mike Hoffman · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P3 16:59CHIRichard PanikPPGWGAssists: Patrick Kane, Jonathan Toews · Snap, 0.07 xG2–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 9:08OTTZack Smith: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 11:01CHIRyan Hartman: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:10OTTTommy Wingels: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:10CHIJonathan Toews: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:06OTTChris Wideman: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:04CHIMarcus Kruger: Interference2 min
- P2 15:12CHIMarian Hossa: Holding2 min
- P3 11:11CHIBrent Seabrook: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 14:15OTTDerick Brassard: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:52OTTMarc Methot: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Brassard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKane – Schmaltz – Panarin10:14
xG 0.71–0.30 (70%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
- Tootoo – Desjardins – Kero3:36
xG 0.18–0.09 (66%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Hossa – Hartman – Kero3:27
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Toews – Panik – Hayden7:00
xG 0.02–0.05 (31%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKeith – Hjalmarsson13:49
xG 0.49–0.19 (72%)attempts 11–18goals 1–0
- Oduya – Seabrook14:05
xG 0.38–0.23 (62%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
- Campbell – van Riemsdyk12:51
xG 0.39–0.34 (54%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBurrows – Brassard – Smith9:48
xG 0.62–0.23 (73%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Hoffman – Pageau8:00
xG 0.29–0.26 (53%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Kelly – Stalberg – Wingels4:58
xG 0.11–0.14 (43%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Ryan – Turris – Dzingel10:19
xG 0.17–0.45 (28%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Karlsson14:55
xG 0.83–0.72 (54%)attempts 17–15goals 0–1
- Wideman – Claesson6:33
xG 0.16–0.12 (56%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Claesson2:40
xG 0.06–0.08 (44%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).