Thu, Mar 16, 2017·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Boston Bruins 4, Edmonton Oilers 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 29 | 215 | 012 | 436 |
| EDM | 414 | 313 | 09 | 736 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:29EDMPatrick MaroonPPAssists: Jordan Eberle, Andrej Sekera · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 5:28EDMPatrick MaroonAssists: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–2
- P1 8:23EDMBenoit PouliotAssists: David Desharnais, Darnell Nurse · Tip-in, 0.13 xG0–3
- P1 12:29BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Brad Marchand, Ryan Spooner · Snap, 0.12 xG1–3
- P1 17:44BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Zdeno Chara · Snap, 0.10 xG2–3
- P1 19:09EDMAnton SlepyshevAssists: Connor McDavid, Darnell Nurse · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–4
- P2 2:06EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPGWGAssists: Drake Caggiula, Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.46 xG2–5
- P2 4:17BOSDominic MooreSHAssists: Adam McQuaid · Backhand, 0.03 xG3–5
- P2 6:46EDMLeon DraisaitlUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–6
- P2 14:49EDMMilan LucicPPAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid · Tip-in, 0.18 xG3–7
- P2 19:28BOSDavid KrejciPPAssists: Brad Marchand, Torey Krug · Slap, 0.14 xG4–7
Penalties (16)
- P1 3:18BOSRiley Nash: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 9:59BOSZdeno Chara: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 9:59EDMPatrick Maroon: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 11:28EDMLeon Draisaitl: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 18:37EDMPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:37BOSAdam McQuaid: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 19:27BOSZdeno Chara: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:27EDMZack Kassian: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:58BOSFrank Vatrano: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 4:02BOSColin Miller: Holding2 min
- P2 11:44BOSBrad Marchand: Interference2 min
- P2 14:07BOSDavid Krejci: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 18:12EDMBenoit Pouliot: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:56EDMKris Russell: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:13BOSDrew Stafford: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:33EDMOscar Klefbom: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Backes – Marchand4:05
xG 0.48–0.01 (98%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Beleskey – Spooner – Vatrano5:09
xG 0.70–0.44 (61%)attempts 11–5goals 0–2
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak6:10
xG 0.47–0.37 (56%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Moore – Nash – Hayes7:02
xG 0.25–0.21 (54%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKrug – Carlo4:04
xG 0.61–0.16 (79%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Chara – Miller2:52
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- McQuaid – Krug7:56
xG 0.48–0.35 (57%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Draisaitl – McDavid8:08
xG 0.45–0.31 (59%)attempts 6–11goals 2–0
- Pouliot – Desharnais – Kassian7:35
xG 0.27–0.32 (45%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
- Lucic – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins9:59
xG 0.26–0.48 (35%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Letestu – Slepyshev – Caggiula6:29
xG 0.21–0.67 (24%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Klefbom12:23
xG 0.43–0.22 (66%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Benning – Nurse12:41
xG 0.72–1.01 (42%)attempts 9–20goals 2–0
- Sekera – Russell11:58
xG 0.45–0.97 (32%)attempts 9–15goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).