Thu, Mar 16, 2017·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Dallas Stars 4, Vancouver Canucks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 28 | 08 | 220 | 436 |
| VAN | 110 | 19 | 09 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:41DALAles HemskyAssists: Remi Elie, Patrik Nemeth · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 13:27VANSven BaertschiAssists: Nikita Tryamkin, Reid Boucher · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–1
- P1 19:52DALEsa LindellAssists: John Klingberg, Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 19:58VANBen HuttonPPAssists: Markus Granlund, Bo Horvat · Backhand, 0.23 xG2–2
- P3 9:07DALTyler SeguinPPGWGAssists: John Klingberg, Jason Spezza · Slap, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 15:31DALRadek FaksaAssists: Devin Shore · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:01DALAdam Cracknell: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 16:31DALJamie Benn: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 16:31VANNikita Tryamkin: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:02DALRadek Faksa: Interference2 min
- P3 8:11VANAlex Biega: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestHemsky – Eakin – Elie11:08
xG 0.38–0.24 (62%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Spezza – Sharp – Seguin4:56
xG 0.18–0.06 (75%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Spezza – Benn – Seguin7:42
xG 0.15–0.14 (51%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Ritchie – Faksa – Shore3:36
xG 0.11–0.13 (46%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Lindell17:30
xG 0.71–0.46 (61%)attempts 16–17goals 3–0
- Johns – Nemeth14:29
xG 0.29–0.18 (62%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Oleksiak12:20
xG 0.32–0.95 (25%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBoucher – Baertschi – Horvat11:25
xG 0.97–0.37 (72%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
- Chaput – LaBate – Megna9:12
xG 0.27–0.18 (60%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Granlund13:05
xG 0.20–0.23 (47%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Sutter – Shore – Cramarossa10:06
xG 0.19–0.46 (29%)attempts 5–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSbisa – Tryamkin12:27
xG 0.99–0.22 (82%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Hutton – Tryamkin2:08
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Edler – Stecher16:16
xG 0.39–0.39 (50%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).