Thu, Mar 16, 2017·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
St. Louis Blues 4, San Jose Sharks 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 111 | 19 | 216 | 436 |
| SJS | 16 | 05 | 09 | 120 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:40STLScottie UpshallUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 17:45SJSMarc-Edouard VlasicAssists: Dylan DeMelo, Logan Couture · Deflected, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 5:49STLZachary SanfordGWGAssists: Jay Bouwmeester, Ivan Barbashev · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 8:34STLVladimir TarasenkoPPAssists: Alexander Steen, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.40 xG3–1
- P3 18:10STLVladimir TarasenkoENAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Colton Parayko · Wrist, 0.72 xG4–1
Penalties (5)
- P2 9:34STLJoel Edmundson: Interference2 min
- P2 15:30STLRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:30SJSMicheal Haley: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:49STLZachary Sanford: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:22SJSDylan DeMelo: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Berglund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Tarasenko – Schwartz13:25
xG 0.84–0.22 (79%)attempts 26–8goals 0–0
- Paajarvi – Sanford – Barbashev8:11
xG 0.30–0.09 (76%)attempts 12–8goals 1–1
- Steen – Berglund – Perron13:19
xG 0.22–0.19 (53%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Upshall – Brodziak – Reaves8:51
xG 0.13–0.26 (33%)attempts 7–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo19:09
xG 0.32–0.32 (50%)attempts 20–19goals 2–0
- Gunnarsson – Bortuzzo13:16
xG 0.34–0.34 (50%)attempts 15–14goals 0–1
- Edmundson – Parayko16:02
xG 0.35–0.52 (40%)attempts 25–15goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHansen – Boedker – Tierney2:12
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Hansen10:42
xG 0.30–0.19 (61%)attempts 9–17goals 0–1
- Boedker – Donskoi – Hertl7:39
xG 0.12–0.06 (67%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Haley – Donskoi – Sorensen2:36
xG 0.12–0.11 (51%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Dillon – DeMelo14:29
xG 0.30–0.28 (52%)attempts 21–12goals 0–1
- Martin – Burns16:45
xG 0.36–0.59 (38%)attempts 15–24goals 0–1
- Vlasic – Braun14:19
xG 0.30–0.61 (33%)attempts 8–24goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).