Fri, Mar 17, 2017·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
New Jersey Devils 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 213 | 113 | 110 | 436 |
| PIT | 317 | 115 | 211 | 643 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:35NJDKyle PalmieriAssists: Taylor Hall, John Moore · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 6:37PITPhil KesselAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Matt Cullen · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 13:30PITJake GuentzelAssists: Brian Dumoulin, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–2
- P1 14:02NJDStefan NoesenAssists: Pavel Zacha, John Quenneville · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–2
- P1 19:45PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Mark Streit, Justin Schultz · Snap, 0.12 xG2–3
- P2 15:47PITNick BoninoAssists: Carter Rowney, Tom Kuhnhackl · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–4
- P2 19:09NJDBeau BennettAssists: Adam Henrique, Jon Merrill · Wrist, 0.26 xG3–4
- P3 5:17PITCarter RowneyGWGAssists: Tom Kuhnhackl, Tom Sestito · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–5
- P3 16:29NJDKyle PalmieriPPAssists: Joseph Blandisi · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–5
- P3 19:26PITSidney CrosbyENAssists: Conor Sheary · Wrist, 0.59 xG4–6
Penalties (13)
- P1 1:24PITChad Ruhwedel: Interference2 min
- P1 7:44PITTom Sestito: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 10:00NJDJohn Quenneville: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 18:12NJDJoseph Blandisi: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 18:12NJDDalton Prout: Cross checking2 min
- P2 4:52PITMatt Cullen: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:33PITChris Kunitz: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:33NJDJon Merrill: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:38NJDBen Lovejoy: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 19:58PITJustin Schultz: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:58NJDNick Lappin: Bench2 min
- P3 8:03NJDDamon Severson: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:21PITNick Bonino: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestHenrique – Bennett – Blandisi7:47
xG 0.47–0.35 (57%)attempts 6–10goals 1–2
- Noesen – Quenneville – Zacha6:49
xG 0.24–0.34 (41%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Zajac – Palmieri – Hall9:33
xG 0.38–0.62 (38%)attempts 7–14goals 1–1
- Pietila – Wood – Lappin6:03
xG 0.10–0.75 (12%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Lovejoy9:51
xG 0.65–0.36 (65%)attempts 14–11goals 1–1
- Prout – Merrill12:08
xG 0.42–0.22 (66%)attempts 9–6goals 1–2
- Lovejoy – Merrill2:40
xG 0.00–0.63 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Hornqvist – Kessel9:46
xG 0.81–0.44 (65%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
- Crosby – Guentzel – Sheary11:08
xG 0.57–0.60 (49%)attempts 15–11goals 1–1
- Kunitz – Bonino – Wilson8:52
xG 0.04–0.20 (18%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Dumoulin11:32
xG 1.28–0.37 (78%)attempts 19–9goals 1–0
- Streit – Ruhwedel7:36
xG 0.72–0.12 (86%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Cole – Ruhwedel3:04
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).