Fri, Mar 17, 2017·Honda Center, Anaheim
Buffalo Sabres 2, Anaheim Ducks 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 08 | 17 | 015 | 01 | 3 | 231 |
| ANA | 19 | 017 | 011 | 03 | 2 | 140 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:48ANARickard RakellAssists: Cam Fowler, Brandon Montour · Backhand, 0.23 xG0–1
- P2 15:35BUFRyan O'ReillyAssists: Jake McCabe, Jack Eichel · Slap, 0.07 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. ANA Jakob Silfverberg stopped
- 2. BUF Tyler Ennis stopped
- 3. ANA Ryan Getzlaf scored
- 4. BUF Ryan O'Reilly scored
- 5. ANA Rickard Rakell stopped
- 6. BUF Jack Eichel stopped
- 7. ANA Corey Perry stopped
- 8. BUF Sam Reinhart stopped
- 9. ANA Patrick Eaves stopped
- 10. BUF Evander Kane stopped
- 11. ANA Cam Fowler stopped
- 12. BUF Matt Moulson stopped
- 13. ANA Antoine Vermette stopped
- 14. BUF Brian Gionta stopped
- 15. ANA Ryan Kesler stopped
- 16. BUF Evan Rodrigues stopped
- 17. ANA Brandon Montour scored
- 18. BUF Rasmus Ristolainen scored
- 19. ANA Nick Ritchie stopped
- 20. BUF Zemgus Girgensons scored
Penalties (3)
- P3 3:15BUFZach Bogosian: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:15ANANick Ritchie: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:31ANAKevin Bieksa: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Rodrigues
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Moulson – Bailey – Reinhart4:36
xG 0.17–0.13 (56%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Foligno – Fasching – Rodrigues11:30
xG 0.10–0.46 (18%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Ennis – O'Reilly – Eichel12:44
xG 0.91–1.42 (39%)attempts 20–20goals 0–0
- Gionta – Kane – Girgensons10:17
xG 0.29–1.00 (22%)attempts 11–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Ristolainen16:40
xG 0.66–0.54 (55%)attempts 16–16goals 0–0
- Franson – Bogosian5:55
xG 0.45–0.39 (54%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Gorges – Bogosian3:20
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Eaves – Rakell15:47
xG 1.15–0.31 (79%)attempts 20–19goals 1–0
- Vermette – Perry – Ritchie9:35
xG 0.90–0.26 (77%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg15:08
xG 1.36–0.91 (60%)attempts 18–20goals 0–1
- Thompson – Boll – Wagner6:10
xG 0.39–0.03 (93%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBieksa – Vatanen14:09
xG 1.02–0.14 (88%)attempts 19–6goals 0–0
- Fowler – Montour14:26
xG 1.35–0.63 (68%)attempts 20–16goals 1–0
- Manson – Lindholm18:17
xG 1.07–0.69 (61%)attempts 17–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).