Sat, Mar 18, 2017·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, New York Islanders 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 012 | 217 | 07 | 12 | 338 |
| NYI | 15 | 08 | 19 | 00 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:18NYITravis HamonicAssists: Jason Chimera, Anthony Beauvillier · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 1:00CBJOliver BjorkstrandUnassisted · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 15:48CBJJosh AndersonAssists: Nick Foligno, Zach Werenski · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 8:48NYIJohn TavaresAssists: Dennis Seidenberg, Scott Mayfield · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- OT 1:19CBJCam AtkinsonGWGAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Zach Werenski · Wrist, 0.26 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P2 4:08NYIScott Mayfield: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:08CBJNick Foligno: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:01NYIAndrew Ladd: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:01CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:01CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against Dubinsky
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Bjorkstrand – Wennberg12:49
xG 1.16–0.24 (83%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Gagner – Atkinson – Saad13:40
xG 1.05–0.18 (85%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Jenner – Anderson11:56
xG 0.99–0.79 (56%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
- Hartnell – Calvert – Karlsson10:58
xG 0.30–0.33 (48%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Werenski19:41
xG 1.89–0.80 (70%)attempts 19–18goals 0–0
- Quincey – Harrington13:58
xG 0.87–0.29 (75%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Johnson – Savard20:12
xG 1.08–0.67 (62%)attempts 18–21goals 1–2
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Bailey – Tavares2:52
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 1–0
- Chimera – Nelson – Strome2:20
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Kulemin – Cizikas3:11
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Chimera – Kulemin – Beauvillier6:52
xG 0.17–0.32 (35%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Hamonic – de Haan19:58
xG 0.31–0.49 (39%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
- Leddy – Pelech18:04
xG 0.65–1.40 (32%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
- Seidenberg – Mayfield13:20
xG 0.70–1.79 (28%)attempts 16–20goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).