Sat, Mar 18, 2017·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Anaheim Ducks 2, San Jose Sharks 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 111 | 112 | 04 | 227 |
| SJS | 18 | 012 | 014 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:39ANAPatrick EavesAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Rickard Rakell · Snap, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 19:13SJSLogan CouturePPAssists: Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau · Snap, 0.28 xG1–1
- P2 13:29ANAJakob SilfverbergGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.14 xG2–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 6:30ANAJakob Silfverberg: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:53SJSJoel Ward: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:53ANARyan Kesler: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:53SJSJoel Ward: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 17:53ANABrandon Montour: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:29ANACam Fowler: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:55SJSJoel Ward: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:40ANANick Ritchie: Interference2 min
- P3 5:40SJSMicheal Haley: Embellishment2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Thornton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestThompson – Wagner – Kase5:30
xG 0.20–0.03 (87%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Eaves – Rakell10:53
xG 0.31–0.27 (53%)attempts 6–12goals 1–0
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg10:07
xG 0.38–0.52 (42%)attempts 11–18goals 1–0
- Vermette – Perry – Ritchie7:06
xG 0.16–0.41 (28%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Lindholm13:34
xG 0.70–0.23 (75%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Bieksa – Fowler2:57
xG 0.47–0.07 (88%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Vatanen – Fowler2:00
xG 0.10–0.11 (47%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHaley – Sorensen – Tierney7:38
xG 0.63–0.23 (73%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Boedker – Donskoi – Hertl9:14
xG 0.37–0.14 (72%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Marleau – Ward – Couture11:13
xG 0.85–0.72 (54%)attempts 22–10goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Hansen9:11
xG 0.16–0.24 (39%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Burns15:44
xG 1.26–0.43 (74%)attempts 34–10goals 0–1
- Vlasic – Braun13:13
xG 0.31–0.38 (45%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Dillon – DeMelo9:50
xG 0.54–0.86 (39%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).