Sun, Mar 19, 2017·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Florida Panthers 0, Pittsburgh Penguins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 07 | 07 | 07 | 021 |
| PIT | 17 | 211 | 110 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:14PITPatric HornqvistGWGAssists: Phil Kessel, Matt Cullen · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–1
- P2 14:15PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Jake Guentzel, Conor Sheary · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 16:07PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Jake Guentzel, Conor Sheary · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–3
- P3 5:00PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Jake Guentzel, Conor Sheary · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 18:21FLAThomas Vanek: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:19FLADerek MacKenzie: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 8:33FLANick Bjugstad: Holding2 min
- P2 15:28FLAJussi Jokinen: Boarding2 min
- P2 15:28FLAAlexander Petrovic: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:28PITMatt Cullen: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:28PITMatt Cullen: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:31PITJustin Schultz: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:13PITTom Sestito: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:43FLAKeith Yandle: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:50PITTom Kuhnhackl: High sticking2 min
- P3 16:11PITCarter Rowney: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- Jagr – Huberdeau – Barkov11:50
xG 0.36–0.38 (49%)attempts 10–5goals 0–2
- Vanek – Bjugstad – Marchessault7:52
xG 0.07–0.21 (24%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Sceviour7:26
xG 0.27–0.43 (39%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Smith – Trocheck9:39
xG 0.09–0.52 (15%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Kindl – Petrovic2:20
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Kindl – Pysyk7:57
xG 0.38–0.44 (47%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Yandle – Demers13:43
xG 0.25–0.43 (36%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Guentzel – Sheary11:00
xG 0.81–0.33 (71%)attempts 13–8goals 3–0
- Cullen – Hornqvist – Kessel9:10
xG 0.37–0.14 (72%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Sestito – Kuhnhackl – Rowney2:48
xG 0.25–0.10 (72%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Bonino – Wilson6:27
xG 0.15–0.16 (49%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Dumoulin11:31
xG 0.71–0.14 (83%)attempts 6–7goals 2–0
- Streit – Ruhwedel10:15
xG 0.50–0.09 (85%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Cole – Dumoulin4:08
xG 0.15–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).