Sun, Mar 19, 2017·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Minnesota Wild 4, Winnipeg Jets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 014 | 421 | 013 | 448 |
| WPG | 37 | 15 | 19 | 521 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:47WPGAndrew CoppAssists: Adam Lowry, Joel Armia · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P1 5:36WPGAdam LowryPPAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Blake Wheeler · Snap, 0.19 xG0–2
- P1 16:47WPGBen ChiarotAssists: Bryan Little · Backhand, 0.23 xG0–3
- P2 4:38WPGDustin ByfuglienAssists: Blake Wheeler, Mathieu Perreault · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–4
- P2 9:23MINCharlie CoyleAssists: Zach Parise · Snap, 0.10 xG1–4
- P2 15:08MINMikael GranlundPPAssists: Mikko Koivu, Jonas Brodin · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–4
- P2 15:47MINChris StewartAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Jason Zucker · Backhand, 0.24 xG3–4
- P2 19:47MINChris StewartAssists: Erik Haula, Tyler Graovac · Wrist, 0.24 xG4–4
- P3 12:43WPGJosh MorrisseyGWGAssists: Brian Strait, Mark Scheifele · Slap, 0.03 xG4–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:26MINChris Stewart: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 2:26WPGChris Thorburn: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:14MINGustav Olofsson: High sticking2 min
- P1 5:59MINMartin Hanzal: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:49WPGMathieu Perreault: Interference2 min
- P1 16:40MINCharlie Coyle: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:49MINEric Staal: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:41WPGAndrew Copp: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 17:53WPGDustin Byfuglien: Closing hand on puck2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hanzal won the faceoff against Lowry
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Parise – Coyle10:33
xG 0.92–0.18 (84%)attempts 24–9goals 1–0
- Stewart – Haula – Graovac5:36
xG 0.38–0.12 (76%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Koivu – Zucker – Granlund11:23
xG 0.57–0.37 (61%)attempts 14–11goals 0–2
- Hanzal – White – Niederreiter8:28
xG 0.20–0.19 (52%)attempts 10–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Spurgeon18:49
xG 1.26–0.38 (77%)attempts 28–10goals 1–0
- Brodin – Olofsson10:14
xG 0.95–0.25 (79%)attempts 16–8goals 2–2
- Scandella – Dumba10:21
xG 0.71–0.33 (68%)attempts 18–9goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Perreault – Scheifele13:17
xG 0.65–0.44 (59%)attempts 19–12goals 1–0
- Lowry – Armia – Copp12:33
xG 0.20–0.53 (28%)attempts 3–19goals 1–1
- Little – Ehlers – Laine10:53
xG 0.31–0.96 (24%)attempts 6–22goals 0–0
- Thorburn – Dano – Petan3:16
xG 0.08–0.78 (9%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Stuart – Chiarot10:35
xG 0.08–0.77 (9%)attempts 3–15goals 0–2
- Byfuglien – Melchiori19:41
xG 0.33–1.05 (24%)attempts 14–25goals 1–1
- Strait – Morrissey12:47
xG 0.48–1.24 (28%)attempts 10–23goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).