Sun, Mar 19, 2017·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Philadelphia Flyers 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 04 | 29 | 18 | 01 | 322 |
| PHI | 115 | 114 | 113 | 12 | 444 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:02PHIIvan ProvorovAssists: Andrew MacDonald, Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 11:03PHIDale WeiseAssists: Valtteri Filppula · Snap, 0.31 xG0–2
- P2 12:37CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Noah Hanifin, Teuvo Teravainen · Snap, 0.43 xG1–2
- P2 18:56CARElias LindholmAssists: Phillip Di Giuseppe, Victor Rask · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 11:49CARJordan StaalPPAssists: Elias Lindholm, Sebastian Aho · Snap, 0.35 xG3–2
- P3 19:17PHITravis KonecnyAssists: Ivan Provorov, Sean Couturier · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–3
- OT 0:38PHIBrayden SchennGWGAssists: Sean Couturier, Ivan Provorov · Wrist, 0.41 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
- P2 7:11PHIMatt Read: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 0:58CARPhillip Di Giuseppe: Holding2 min
- P3 2:20CARSebastian Aho: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 10:27PHISean Couturier: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 17:15CARSebastian Aho: Delaying game face off violation2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Rask – Teravainen5:58
xG 0.69–0.11 (86%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Stempniak – Skinner – Ryan5:41
xG 0.25–0.12 (68%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- McGinn – Brown – Ryan4:16
xG 0.11–0.04 (72%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Stempniak – Staal – Nordstrom3:59
xG 0.01–0.08 (15%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDahlbeck – Pesce6:34
xG 0.27–0.18 (60%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Dahlbeck – Murphy7:02
xG 0.12–0.10 (54%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Pesce – Hanifin9:43
xG 0.38–0.38 (50%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestWeise – Schenn – Couturier10:19
xG 1.27–0.43 (75%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- VandeVelde – Read – Bellemare8:20
xG 0.13–0.16 (45%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Filppula – Voracek – Konecny10:06
xG 0.34–0.37 (48%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Giroux – Simmonds – Weal11:35
xG 0.40–0.55 (42%)attempts 17–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDel Zotto – Gudas15:25
xG 2.08–0.28 (88%)attempts 20–8goals 1–0
- Schultz – Gostisbehere11:40
xG 0.23–0.20 (53%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- MacDonald – Provorov16:52
xG 0.43–1.08 (29%)attempts 16–17goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).