Sun, Mar 19, 2017·United Center, Chicago
Colorado Avalanche 3, Chicago Blackhawks 6
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 27 | 19 | 09 | 325 |
| CHI | 110 | 010 | 514 | 634 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:33CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Artemi Panarin, Nick Schmaltz · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 8:14COLMikhail GrigorenkoUnassisted · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–1
- P1 15:36COLMikhail GrigorenkoAssists: Tyson Barrie, Fedor Tyutin · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 16:24COLSven AndrighettoAssists: Mark Barberio, Mikko Rantanen · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 10:17CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: John Hayden, Duncan Keith · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 10:34CHIRichard PanikAssists: John Hayden, Brent Seabrook · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3
- P3 10:51CHIArtemi PanarinGWGAssists: Nick Schmaltz, Patrick Kane · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–4
- P3 13:19CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Niklas Hjalmarsson, Trevor van Riemsdyk · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–5
- P3 19:58CHIMarcus KrugerENAssists: Tanner Kero · Wrist, 0.47 xG3–6
Penalties (1)
- P1 10:34COLJoe Colborne: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestColborne – Nieto – Compher10:01
xG 0.25–0.12 (68%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
- Andrighetto – MacKinnon – Rantanen15:55
xG 0.76–0.81 (48%)attempts 16–18goals 1–1
- Comeau – Soderberg – Grigorenko10:30
xG 0.42–0.77 (35%)attempts 7–13goals 2–1
- Bourque – Duchene – Landeskog13:39
xG 0.16–0.60 (21%)attempts 7–15goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Barrie2:24
xG 0.13–0.04 (77%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Barrie16:18
xG 0.56–0.51 (52%)attempts 13–14goals 1–2
- Johnson – Barberio15:04
xG 0.63–0.61 (51%)attempts 14–16goals 2–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKruger – Jurco – Hartman9:44
xG 0.65–0.00 (100%)attempts 15–2goals 0–0
- Toews – Panik – Hayden10:22
xG 0.70–0.24 (75%)attempts 14–9goals 3–0
- Kane – Schmaltz – Panarin11:24
xG 0.51–0.39 (57%)attempts 13–7goals 2–1
- Toews – Hayden – Panarin2:24
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – van Riemsdyk20:27
xG 0.75–0.61 (55%)attempts 19–13goals 0–1
- Keith – Hjalmarsson13:32
xG 0.38–0.24 (61%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Keith – Seabrook5:13
xG 0.33–0.21 (61%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).