Sun, Mar 19, 2017·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Los Angeles Kings 2, Calgary Flames 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 15 | 110 | 06 | 221 |
| CGY | 28 | 29 | 17 | 524 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:15CGYSean MonahanAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Alex Chiasson · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 11:36CGYMichael StoneAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan · Slap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P1 18:40LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Dustin Brown, Jarome Iginla · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 0:47CGYMark GiordanoGWGAssists: Dougie Hamilton, Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–3
- P2 1:37CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Sean Monahan, TJ Brodie · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–4
- P2 5:31LAKNic DowdAssists: Paul LaDue, Jake Muzzin · Tip-in, 0.04 xG2–4
- P3 19:35CGYKris VersteegENAssists: Curtis Lazar · Slap, 0.56 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 19:41LAKDerek Forbort: Roughing2 min
- P1 19:41CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:54LAKNic Dowd: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:26LAKAlec Martinez: Holding2 min
- P2 8:00CGYDougie Hamilton: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:20CGYDeryk Engelland: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 16:18CGYMatt Bartkowski: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:54LAKKyle Clifford: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stajan won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- Clifford – Dowd – Andreoff9:18
xG 0.13–0.10 (56%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Gaborik – Lewis – Kempe6:15
xG 0.01–0.06 (10%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
- Iginla – Brown – Kopitar11:07
xG 0.25–0.30 (45%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
- Carter – Toffoli – Pearson8:26
xG 0.09–0.28 (24%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Forbort15:51
xG 0.73–0.54 (58%)attempts 10–19goals 0–0
- Muzzin – LaDue9:27
xG 0.18–0.07 (71%)attempts 11–2goals 1–0
- Muzzin – Martinez2:03
xG 0.11–0.02 (82%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Backlund – Tkachuk9:23
xG 0.29–0.10 (75%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Bouma – Lazar – Bennett7:36
xG 0.10–0.12 (46%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Stajan – Versteeg – Brouwer11:56
xG 0.17–0.28 (37%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Chiasson – Gaudreau – Monahan9:50
xG 0.22–0.50 (31%)attempts 8–9goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Hamilton13:17
xG 0.30–0.19 (61%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Engelland – Bartkowski14:09
xG 0.27–0.22 (55%)attempts 9–9goals 1–2
- Stone – Brodie14:18
xG 0.52–0.80 (39%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).