Tue, Mar 21, 2017·Prudential Center, Newark
New York Rangers 2, New Jersey Devils 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 014 | 16 | 117 | 03 | 240 |
| NJD | 011 | 27 | 09 | 12 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 15:16NJDJohn QuennevillePPAssists: Joseph Blandisi, Pavel Zacha · Snap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 16:53NYROscar LindbergAssists: Pavel Buchnevich, Ryan McDonagh · Snap, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 18:22NJDTaylor HallAssists: Kyle Palmieri · Snap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 1:21NYRRick NashPPAssists: Kevin Hayes, Brady Skjei · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–2
- OT 4:05NJDJoseph BlandisiGWGAssists: John Quenneville · Backhand, 0.18 xG2–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:43NYRRyan McDonagh: Holding2 min
- P2 1:36NJDSteven Santini: Cross checking2 min
- P2 6:35NYRDerek Stepan: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:46NYRBrendan Smith: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:43NJDMiles Wood: Instigator2 min · PPG
- P2 19:43NJDMiles Wood: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:43NYRNick Holden: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:43NJDMiles Wood: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P2 19:43NYRJimmy Vesey: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:43NJDBlake Coleman: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestNash – Zibanejad – Miller12:59
xG 0.97–0.14 (88%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Lindberg – Vesey – Buchnevich9:21
xG 0.32–0.03 (91%)attempts 10–2goals 1–0
- Grabner – Hayes – Fast9:44
xG 0.34–0.18 (65%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Stepan – Kreider – Zuccarello13:02
xG 0.65–0.52 (56%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – McDonagh14:19
xG 1.08–0.28 (80%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- Clendening – Skjei13:40
xG 0.58–0.05 (92%)attempts 17–4goals 0–0
- Smith – Holden18:29
xG 0.77–0.77 (50%)attempts 15–19goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- Bennett – Coleman – Lappin3:33
xG 0.17–0.14 (55%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
- Coleman – Wood – Lappin5:51
xG 0.03–0.14 (19%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Noesen – Quenneville – Zacha9:28
xG 0.06–0.23 (21%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Zajac – Palmieri – Hall12:17
xG 0.64–0.88 (42%)attempts 16–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Greene – Lovejoy13:40
xG 0.36–0.61 (37%)attempts 11–12goals 1–0
- Moore – Severson14:46
xG 0.27–0.81 (25%)attempts 7–18goals 0–0
- Merrill – Santini15:15
xG 0.28–0.91 (23%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).