Tue, Mar 21, 2017·Verizon Center, Washington
Calgary Flames 2, Washington Capitals 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 112 | 06 | 113 | 231 |
| WSH | 112 | 220 | 18 | 440 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:47WSHEvgeny KuznetsovAssists: Andre Burakovsky · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 10:06CGYSean MonahanAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Alex Chiasson · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 15:51WSHT.J. OshieAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–2
- P2 19:57WSHNicklas BackstromPPGWGAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, T.J. Oshie · Tip-in, 0.20 xG1–3
- P3 15:04CGYTroy BrouwerAssists: Deryk Engelland, Kris Versteeg · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–3
- P3 17:09WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:40CGYTroy Brouwer: Slashing2 min
- P1 4:40WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:32WSHJustin Williams: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:02CGYMichael Stone: Hooking2 min
- P2 19:40CGYDougie Hamilton: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 15:36CGYMark Giordano: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stajan won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Backlund – Bennett12:39
xG 0.70–0.31 (69%)attempts 22–10goals 0–0
- Bouma – Hamilton – Lazar7:10
xG 0.16–0.30 (34%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
- Stajan – Versteeg – Brouwer9:03
xG 0.29–0.57 (34%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Chiasson – Gaudreau – Monahan13:15
xG 0.39–0.87 (31%)attempts 16–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Hamilton15:24
xG 0.91–0.75 (55%)attempts 25–12goals 1–0
- Engelland – Bartkowski14:53
xG 0.26–0.71 (27%)attempts 10–23goals 1–1
- Stone – Brodie18:03
xG 0.42–1.22 (25%)attempts 11–16goals 0–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Oshie – Backstrom11:45
xG 0.91–0.27 (77%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Winnik – Beagle – Wilson9:25
xG 0.54–0.15 (78%)attempts 16–4goals 0–1
- Williams – Johansson – Kuznetsov12:05
xG 0.35–0.18 (66%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Eller – Connolly – Burakovsky8:18
xG 0.38–0.41 (48%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Shattenkirk14:51
xG 0.94–0.42 (69%)attempts 17–12goals 0–1
- Alzner – Carlson17:13
xG 1.13–0.65 (64%)attempts 21–17goals 0–1
- Niskanen – Orlov14:59
xG 0.46–0.43 (52%)attempts 13–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).