Tue, Mar 21, 2017·Centre Bell, Montreal
Detroit Red Wings 2, Montréal Canadiens 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 112 | 09 | 09 | 16 | 236 |
| MTL | 08 | 015 | 113 | 00 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:53DETJustin AbdelkaderPPAssists: Niklas Kronwall, Frans Nielsen · Backhand, 0.31 xG1–0
- P3 17:31MTLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- OT 4:10DETAnthony ManthaGWGAssists: Danny DeKeyser · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
Penalties (4)
- P1 0:39MTLNathan Beaulieu: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 12:33DETNiklas Kronwall: Interference2 min
- P2 12:44DETTomas Nosek: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:48DETDanny DeKeyser: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ott won the faceoff against Nosek
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Sheahan – Mantha8:29
xG 0.32–0.06 (84%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Nyquist – Tatar15:51
xG 0.46–0.25 (65%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Miller – Glendening – Nosek7:32
xG 0.06–0.11 (34%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Abdelkader – Athanasiou – Larkin10:18
xG 0.05–0.36 (13%)attempts 4–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRusso – Ouellet9:44
xG 0.35–0.24 (59%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Green – Ouellet5:44
xG 0.09–0.03 (75%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Green – DeKeyser3:28
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestShaw – Danault – Lehkonen10:35
xG 0.48–0.35 (58%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Radulov – Pacioretty – Danault3:23
xG 0.16–0.07 (69%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Radulov – Pacioretty – Galchenyuk9:39
xG 0.13–0.21 (38%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Byron – Gallagher12:32
xG 0.16–0.26 (38%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Weber16:39
xG 0.46–0.27 (63%)attempts 22–10goals 0–0
- Emelin – Petry18:28
xG 0.48–0.32 (60%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
- Benn – Beaulieu11:28
xG 0.29–0.33 (46%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).